30.03.202007:47 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 03/30/2020 and trading recommendation

In fact, over the past week, the dollar has only been doing that and is losing its position. And at least it was completely justified from Thursday, since the world had never seen such terrifying data on initial applications for unemployment benefits. At the same time, a full-fledged reaction to the sharp deterioration of the situation on the labor market followed only on Friday, when stock indices began to fall again. To some extent this is due to the fact that market participants took some time to understand what is happening. At the same time, it is clear that the situation for the dollar is aggravated by the incredibly fast growth rate of the number of confirmed cases of coronavirus infection in the United States.

At the same time, the pound had an occasion for insignificant growth against the dollar on Friday, since there were signs of a slight improvement in the UK's economic dynamics. The decline in car production slowed from -2.1% to -0.8%. Of course, this is still a recession, and noticeable. But amid catastrophic increase in unemployment and the rapid spread of the coronavirus epidemic in the United States, even a slowdown in industrial decline seems to be an extremely positive factor. Moreover, in the UK itself, the situation with the spread of coronavirus is still much better than in the United States. Although Boris Johnson admitted that he had become infected with the coronavirus.

Car Manufacturing (UK):

In the United States itself, data on personal income and expenses, which grew by 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively, were published. But as expected, these data had no effect. Which in the current conditions is quite justified, since it is data for February, and everyone already saw what began to happen to the labor market in March.

Personal Income (United States):

Today the UK is publishing data on the lending market for February, and although it is clear that March data will be extremely weak, today's data can have a negative impact on the pound. The fact is that in February, the deterioration of the situation in the lending market begins. At least this follows from the forecasts. Thus, the number of approved mortgage loans should be reduced from 70.9 thousand to 67.5 thousand. In addition, the volume of mortgage lending may decrease from 4.0 billion pounds to 3.8 billion pounds. The volume of consumer lending should decrease from 1.2 billion pounds to 1.0 billion pounds. In other words, a month before the coronavirus epidemic hit Europe, the United Kingdom contracted the lending market in all directions. Naturally, this will not add optimism to the pound. Another thing is that this is more likely to slow down its growth, since in terms of the spread of the epidemic, the UK looks much better than the United States.

Mortgages Approved (UK):

But the dollar is unlikely to be able to take advantage of the decline in the lending market in the United Kingdom, since the growth rate of completed home sales in the United States should collapse from 5.7% to 1.5%. This means a rapid decline in activity in the real estate market. Consequently, the next thing we will see is a strong decline in the actual housing transactions themselves. Both in the primary and secondary markets.

Unfinished Home Sales (United States):

In terms of technical analysis, we see a further weakening of the US dollar, during which the pound went towards 1.2500, and felt resistance near it. In fact, we got a new variable range, where the coordinates of the trading forces became the coordinates 1.2350/1.2500, within which the quote develops.

Considering the trading chart in general terms, we see a significant recovery from record lows, where the quote managed to go over 1000 points.

It can be assumed that the oscillation within the 1.2350/1.2500 range will continue, but this will be a temporary phenomenon, since the main tactic will be to break through the specified boundaries.

Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:

- We consider long positions in two stages: first, price taking higher than 1.2405, with a move in the direction of 1.2480; the second stage is implied after price taking above the main level of 1.2500.

- Short positions, we consider in case of price taking lower than 1.2330, with the prospect of a move to 1.2280-1.2200.

From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that due to the rapid recovery, the indicators of technical tools in the hourly and daily areas took an upward position.