30.03.202009:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trader's diary for March 30, 2020. EUR/USD and how to assess the coronavirus situation

First, two sentiments about EURUSD:

A new level to enter up 1.1150, but consider a purchase first to break through this level.

Stop at 1.1105, and the target is at 1.1250.

Exclusive data on coronavirus:

First, the essence of the problem. Don't you think that the official data on the number of infected people - and the picture from the field - create a contradictory picture?

The largest number of infected people is in the USA, which already rose to 146 thousand cases. However, despite this, there is no growing panic in New York City. Contrary to the complete catastrophe Italy and Spain are going through, where the number of infected cases is 98,000 and 80,000. Germany, on the other hand, with 62,400 number of infected cases - everything is pretty calm and even the government is going to cancel (partially) the quarantine.

A strange picture, isn't it? What might be the reason?

Furthermore, the thing is that the official data on the number of infected people are unreliable, practically from the word "absolutely."

In some countries, as in the wealthy USA, tests are done in huge numbers as the number of infected people is growing rapidly. Meanwhile, in Italy and Spain, where the healthcare system is on the verge of complete collapse, they barely manage to do tests for dead and seriously ill patients. As a result, in countries such as the USA, the death toll is only around 1-2% of the number of infected, while countries such as Italy and Spain, the death toll is 10% or even slightly higher.

Conclusions:

1. It is necessary to proceed from the number of dead.

2. Since we are dealing with the same virus - mortality is approximately the same in different countries - and the easiest way to determine mortality is from statistics in China, where the epidemic has actually ended - this is no more than 4%.

3. Based on the mortality rate of 4% - we can calculate the number of patients, counting with the number of deaths. But our figure will be delayed because the time passes from the moment of infection - to death. This means, our figure (by my method M) will be underestimated.

4. For the number of infected, you need to take the number that is higher and the official number of infected or the number of deaths, multiplied by 25 (based on 4% mortality).

Now look:

The number of infections as of March 30:

The global official data is 724,000 - method M - 850 thousand (34,000 dead multiplied by 25).

Italy - Official data of 98,000 - method M - 270 thousand.

Spain - Officer data of 80,100 - method M - 180 thousand.

USA - Officer data of 146,000 - method M gives a smaller figure - we take an official data.

Agree - it changes the whole picture!

We derive to the conclusion that in terms of the number of infected, the USA is only on the third spot, with a significant lag behind the unfortunate Italy and Spain which holds half of all the infected in the world! We see that in these countries, there is a global catastrophe and the help of all developed countries is very much needed.

In addition, this is not the picture that the official statistics of infected people draw for us.

You yourself can open a coronavirus monitor in a search engine by evaluating the veracity of official statistics of infected people in different countries and understand the real picture.