02.04.202010:42 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for EUR/USD on April 2, 2020

As expected, the US market fell sharply, due to the coronavirus situation in the US. The report was not surprising since the country is currently the center of the pandemic, with the number of new patients increasing by more than 20,000 per day.

Now, the market is waiting for the report on the latest US unemployment rate, which will come out today at 13:30 London time.

Update on the coronavirus: the situation in Italy and Spain remains tense. According to official reports, the number of infected people in both countries exceeds 100 thousand (recall that in China, the total number of infected people was 80 thousand).

However, it is quite clear that the reported number of infected in Italy and Spain are not really the actual values, not because of the malice of the authorities, but because it is quite impossible to test every person residing in both countries.

If we start from the number of deaths on April 2, and take the death rate of the virus at 4% (my method), the number of infected people:

Italy: 13,000 deaths = 325,000 cases.

Spain: 9,400 deaths = 235,000 cases.

Thus, with US' 215,000 cases, when analyzed correctly, is actually still behind Italy and Spain.

Positive news: the increase in the number of infected people in Italy is slowing down.

In Spain, although the death rate per day is high, it does not increase further.

The number of infected people in US increases by +26.5 thousand per day, or +13%.

Until US passes the peak of the pandemic, we should not expect a serious reversal in the market.

According to my calculations, US will reach the peak of the pandemic around April 15.

I also expect Moscow to reach the peak of the pandemic on the same day, with the final number of infected people at around 15-30 thousand.

EURUSD: An upward turn is expected.

Buy at the breakout of 1.1040. Stop at 1.0995. The target is 1.1140.