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GBP/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair made a false attempt to break the upper line of the "narrowing triangle", as well as the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2432). After that, it performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and began the process of falling towards the corrective level of 200.0% (1.2251). However, along with the "triangle" that the pair's quotes left, I also built a trend corridor that now speaks in favor of a horizontal movement just below the level of 161.8%. At the moment, the pair is approaching the lower line of this corridor. In the event of a rebound from this line, I will assume that the theory with a sideways movement is justified. In this case, traders can expect a reversal in favor of the British dollar and some growth in the direction of the upper line of the corridor. If bear traders make a close under the corridor, the probability of a further fall in the British dollar's quotes will increase significantly.
GBP/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair continues to move clearly between the corrective levels of 61.8% (1.2516) and 50.0% (1.2303), without approaching any of them. Thus, according to this chart, it can also be said that the British dollar is in a sideways movement, and the trading activity has significantly decreased in recent days. Rebounds of the pair's exchange rate from both levels indicated above can be used as signals for intraday trading. No indicator has any pending divergences today, but they are not important at the moment, since divergences practically do not work in the sidewall.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the picture remains the clearest. The GBP/USD pair closed above the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.2327). Thus, until the quotes are fixed below this level, the chances of the pair continuing to grow in the direction of the next corrective level of 61.8% (1.2553) remain high. The closure of the pound/dollar pair under the level 76.4% will allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a drop in prices towards the corrective level of 100.0% (1.1959).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed a false breakdown of the lower trend line. Thus, until the pair's quotes are fixed under this line, there is a high probability of growth in the direction of the two upper trend lines.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Thursday, only one economic report was released in the UK - business activity in the construction sector. However, neither it nor the report on initial applications for unemployment benefits in America could move the pair from its place. Traders are not responding to economic news or news about the epidemic right now.
The economic calendar for the US and the UK:
United Kingdom - PMI for services (10:30 GMT).
US - unemployment rate (14:30 GMT).
US - change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector (14:30 GMT).
US - change in average hourly earnings (14:30 GMT).
US - ISM composite index for the non-manufacturing sector (16:00 GMT).
As I said in the euro review, there will be a lot of news from America today, and all of it is important. I recommend that traders pay attention to each of the reports, even though the pound is currently "on vacation". However, such important data can make traders behave more actively. It doesn't make sense to predict what the final numbers will be.
COT report (Commitments of Traders):
The latest COT report showed a decrease in the total number of short contracts and an increase in long contracts. However, in general, the figures for the ratio of these categories remain almost equal. From the new COT report, which will be released today, I expect even more balancing between short and long contracts and minimal changes, since neither bulls nor bears had the advantage this week. The pound/dollar pair remains the least popular among major market players. The total number of contracts for it is three times lower than for the euro/dollar pair.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders:
The pair's growth prospects remain high. To sell the pound, I recommended waiting for the quotes to be fixed under the "triangle" on the hourly chart with the target of 1.2251. If the pair closes today and under the side corridor, it will receive another signal to sell for the same purpose. But the rebound from the lower line of the corridor on the hourly chart will allow you to buy the British with an approximate goal of 1.2480.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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