18.05.202011:07 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Crude extends gains

Today, crude oil continued incurring gains.To recap, last Friday, the price of WTI crude oil managed to reach a record high over the past two months, while Brent oil finally maintained its highest level since April 8. Such positive results are based on hopes of market participants that in the near future the level of demand and supply for crude will stabilize.

Today, the price of Brent futures for delivery in July on the London Stock Exchange rose by 3.26% or 1.06 dollars and reached 33.56 dollars per barrel. Last week, their price grew significantly and the cost of the contract went up by 4.6%.

The price of WTI futures for delivery in June on the electronic commodity exchange in New York showed even greater growth - an increase by almost 5% (4.72%) which is equivalent to $1.39. Thus, this crude oil reached the mark of $30.82 per barrel. At the same time, the contract with the expiration date on Tuesday, significantly advanced in price on Friday, by 19%.

According to some positive analysts, the demand for oil began to show a V-shaped wave of recovery. Contrary to all pessimistic statements regarding a short-term growth in the oil market, the increase is only gaining momentum. This is happening amid news about the restoration of economic activity in countries that are importers of crude oil, as well as the fulfillment of their obligations to reduce production in order to stabilize demand and supply on the market.

Thus, the number of drilling rigs for oil and gas production in the United States began to gradually decrease over the past week. The total of 35 units were removed from active use. Now their number in the country is 339 units. This reduction is gradual and regular.Last year, their number was 987 units. The number of installations for oil and gas production was at the lowest level in history.

As of today, another 34 drilling rigs have stopped active mining of crude oil which sent their total number to 258 units. It should be noted that there have been no such low indicators for more than ten years, since 2009. All this indicates the clear intention of the United States to take an active part in restoring the oil market by reducing the supply of its raw materials.

Apart from that, the demand for oil in China increased. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the total volume of refined oil in the country rose to the level of 53.85 million tons over the past month . Currently, it is at around 13.1 million barrels per day compared to 11.78 million barrels per day recorded last month.

However, this is not all good news for oil. According to a report by the United States Department of Energy, oil reserves in the country declined. Last week the stocks fell by 700 thousand barrels. Earlier, experts argued that the report would reflect an increase in reserves, which would be about 4.8 million barrels. Such a significant contrast between forecast and reality has had a positive effect on market participants.

In the near future, oil futures will move under pressure of several factors. Firstly, a further reduction in crude production in OPEC countries may contribute to higher prices. Additional decisions on this subject are likely to be made at the meeting which is to take place in the first half of June.

Another extremely important event will be the expiration of the nearest futures for June, which is due to happen next Tuesday. During expiration, market participants must either sell their contracts or make a supply of crude oil from the Cushing terminal. A month ago, in a similar situation on the last day of trading, investors had to urgently get rid of futures, because they could not provide a satisfactory amount of storage capacity due to a serious oversupply. Back then, market participants had to sell contracts experiencing huge losses. Quotes went into the negative zone and were at the level of -37.63 dollars per barrel. Currently, the market continues to fear that the situation may repeat which is holding back growth. Most analysts recommend holding short positions.