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EUR / USD
On August 4, the EUR/USD pair gained about 40 pips and supposedly completed the construction of wave 4 in 5 in C to B, judging by the subsequent retreat of quotes from the reached minimums. If this is true, then the increase in quotes resumed within the wave 5 in 5 in C in B. Thus, the instrument should soon return to the maximum of wave 3 or even exceed it. After completing the construction of this wave, I expect to build a new downward section of the trend.
Fundamental component:
In recent days, the coronavirus has returned to the agenda. Moreover, when someone talks about coronavirus, they primarily mean the United States, due to the current reality that the most developed country in the world, the country with the largest economy, is still the worst at coping with the epidemic, perhaps because the economy comes first with the American government. One way or another, people in the US continue to get infected, and Donald Trump continues to be criticized. But if the president even admitted that the coronavirus is a really serious problem for the country, and took any action in order to suppress the pandemic, which he would declare at regular briefings, it would be a completely different matter. However, the US government is not taking any measures and is not going to introduce a new "lockdown" and only state governors and city mayors impose some restrictions in places where infection rates are highest. Trump, however, said in the last two days that "the coronavirus is beginning to recede" and that "the vaccine will be ready soon." Moreover, he made his first statement when the daily incidence rates dropped below 60 thousand for several days, but the number of new cases again exceeded 60 thousand on Monday and Tuesday. As for the vaccine, it is being developed by many pharmaceutical companies, but clinical and human trials are ongoing, which could take at least several months. At this time, Trump is trying with all his might to divert the attention of voters from the problems of the pandemic and said that an attack was carried out on Beirut, as he was told by "several generals, with whom he had a dialogue. " Who are these generals who make such conclusions when it is reliably known that an explosion occurred in warehouses with various chemicals as a result of a fire?
General conclusions and recommendations:
The euro/dollar pair presumably continues to build upward wave C in B. Thus, I recommend continuing to buy the instrument with targets located near the calculated level of 1.2084, which equates to 323.6% Fibonacci for each new MACD signal "up", since the wave C in B does not yet look fully completed, but at the same time is nearing its completion. At the same time, if the peak of the wave exceeds 3 in 5 in C in B, purchases can be closed.
GBP / USD
On August 4, the GBP/USD pair lost a few more pips. Thus, the instrument continues to be in the stage of constructing wave 4 in 5. If this is true, then the decline in quotes within wave 4 may continue for some time, however, an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 100.0% Fibonacci level already indicates that the markets are not ready to sell the instrument. Thus, I am waiting for the resumption of the rise in quotes in the direction of the 127.2% Fibonacci level.
Fundamental component:
In the case of the pound, the markets continue to wait for important information not from the United States, but from the UK. The nearest important event is the meeting of the Bank of England, scheduled for Thursday. Also today, market interest will be riveted on the reports of ADP and ISM in America. For the continuation of the rise in quotes, it is necessary that these reports are not strong, so that the demand for the US currency does not increase.
General conclusions and recommendations:
The pound/dollar instrument continues to build upward wave 5, nothing changes. Therefore, I recommend at this time to continue buying the instrument for each MACD signal "up" with targets located around 1.3183, which equates to 127.2% Fibonacci, around which the construction of the entire upward trend section may end.
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