11.08.202008:03 Forex Analysis & Reviews: AUD/USD. Lockdown in Victoria will do aussie a disservice

The AUD/USD pair is stuck in a flat against the backdrop of a half-empty economic calendar, trading within the 71st figure. The aussie finally settled above the resistance level of 0.7000 at the end of July, which now acts as a fairly powerful support. But all attempts to develop a further upward trend failed: the 72nd price level was too tough for the pair's bulls. As a result, the price is forced to drift in a fairly narrow price range in anticipation of the next information driver.

Here it is worth noting that the US currency is in a similar position. The dollar index can not determine the vector of its movement against the background of a contradictory fundamental picture, trading within the 93rd figure (to be more precise, in the 93.3-93.6 range). The executive orders signed by US President Donald Trump on the allocation of financial assistance to unemployed Americans did not support the dollar – on the contrary, a political scandal broke out around this event, as the head of the White House was accused of exceeding his powers.

The greenback was under pressure, but US Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin rushed to help the dollar bulls, who assured the public that negotiations in Congress were continuing and the parties could come to a compromise solution this week. This rhetoric made it possible for the dollar to partially regain its lost ground. However, Mnuchin did not become a catalyst for the large-scale growth of the greenback throughout the market. The congressmen did not share the optimism of the finance minister - none of them (neither from the Democrats, nor from the Republicans) reported that the negotiators had made any progress. Apparently, talks have really reached a dead end, while Trump with his decrees (which are very dubious from a legal point of view) only aggravated the situation. That is why the US dollar was unable to develop an upward movement during today's Asian session. This fact affected the major dollar pairs, and the AUD/USD pair was no exception. Now the aussie is approaching the borders of the 72nd figure within the framework of corrective growth. Buyers of AUD/USD can even test the 0.7200 mark - but they are unlikely to be able to gain a foothold above this target.

However, quite important macroeconomic data will be published this week, which can serve as a trigger - either for AUD/USD bulls or for bears. So, the key indicators of U.S. inflation will be published tomorrow, and after that a key growth indicators of the Australian labour market on Thursday. In anticipation of these releases, the pair's traders are unlikely to open large positions, only if political force majeure does not make its own adjustments.

According to general forecasts, US inflation will show a good, but more modest result relative to June. In July, the overall consumer price index in monthly terms should slow its growth to 0.3% (compared to 0.6% in June). In annual terms, the indicator should rise to 0.8% (in June, an increase of up to 0.6% was recorded). As for core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, it is also projected to have vague dynamics – slower growth on an annual basis (1.1%) and a slight increase relative to June on a monthly basis (0.3%). As you can see, experts predict fairly modest dynamics. If the real numbers turn out to be weaker than the very weak forecasts, the dollar will be under significant pressure, and buyers of the AUD/USD pair will have a reason for another assault on the 72nd figure.

The situation with the Australian labor market is more complicated. A negative trend is expected here, primarily due to the situation in Victoria, the largest state of Australia, where an outbreak of coronavirus was recorded. In this region, quarantine restrictions have been significantly tightened, and a curfew was even imposed in the five million city of Melbourne. Against the backdrop of these events, representatives of the Reserve Bank of Australia revised downward their forecasts for the labor market - for example, in their opinion, by the end of the year the unemployment rate in the country will rise by 10%.

The data for July will be published tomorrow. The published figures should already reflect the impact of the local lockdown in Victoria. According to general forecasts, the unemployment rate should rise to 7.8% (from 7.4% in June), and the growth in the number of employed persons may slow down to 30,000 (this figure came out at the 210,000 level in June). And here it is also necessary to analyze the data structure of the components. If this figure rises again only due to part-time employment, the Australian dollar will fall under a wave of sales. The increase in part-time employment while full employment is declining is a bad sign, which may subsequently affect the consumer activity of Australians, and, ultimately, inflationary processes. RBA Governor Philip Lowe and his deputy, Lucy Ellis, have repeatedly focused their attention on this aspect.

Thus, longs on the AUD/USD pair look risky: according to some estimates, the Australian labor market will show a more deplorable result the day after tomorrow, given the coronavirus crisis in the 6.5 million state of Australia. In their opinion, the economic consequences of the tightening of quarantine will not only be at the local level: for example, problems have arisen with the supply chain far beyond the state of Victoria, since the largest container port in the country is located in this region.

All this suggests that now more or less large-scale growth of the aussie should be considered as a reason for opening short positions. The target of the downward pullback is 0.7120 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart) and 0.7080 (Kijun-sen line on the same timeframe).