14.08.202017:32 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD: downward trend still imminent, US-China negotiations are in focus

Global markets were mostly down on Friday, the mood in the morning was marred by weak data from China, which made investors doubt the stability of the global economic recovery. In Europe, the second wave of the epidemic began, which also does not contribute to an improvement in risk appetite. Against this background, the dollar was able to cheer up a little, and market players began to have hopes for a trend change. But it was not so, the statistics presented an unpleasant surprise. If the latest US data could be interpreted as an improvement in the economic condition of the country, the retail indicator canceled all this, forcing traders to doubt the positive trend.

The growth in retail sales did not meet the market expectations, the indicator increased by 1.2%, while market players expected it to increase by 1.9% in July. The dollar index went below 93.20, which means it returned to the structure of the downward trend in the medium-term. Going against a trend, as we know, is extremely dangerous.

The inability of the American lawmakers to agree to close an amount for the stimulus package to the country as an aid to the pandemic caused irritation to the market. The more they delay this moment, the more negative the consequences for the economy and consumer spending will be.

Retail sales are an extremely important record for the dollar. The data may well correct market expectations for a fiscal deal.

As for the main pair of the foreign exchange market, it begins to feel pressure from the sellers. But in fairness, it should be noted that the bears fail to fully take the initiative into their own hands. The EUR / USD pair has so far found support on declines to 1.1700. This suggests that bullish sentiment persists and traders get a little respite from time to time before a new wave of growth. It is too early to talk about who will win the struggle, buyers, or sellers, it will become clear when the rate goes beyond the range of 1.1700-1.1900.

The USD / CAD pair looks quite interesting. It is worth noting that the Canadian has strengthened well, which was facilitated not only by the weak US dollar but also by high oil prices. Here the hopes that the imminent appearance of a vaccine against coronavirus could stimulate the demand for energy could also play a role.

The USD / CAD rate, following downward, passed through the important area of 1.3350-1.3300. This is another positive signal for the bears. Meanwhile, further strengthening of the downward dynamics may require new highs in oil and stocks, which has not yet been observed. Quite the opposite is true. Sellers continue to wait for the 1.3000 barrier to be broken. This will be possible if oil prices and risk appetite can avoid a major decline.

For an upward movement, the USD / CAD pair needs to cross the 1.3350 mark and further up. Such a movement can be considered a signal for a trend reversal.

The oil market may correct on Monday in one direction or another, much will depend on the outcome of Saturday's talks between the US and China. If the parties go to confrontation, then the new week will open with sales.

Meanwhile, the markets continue to hope that the parties will adhere to a pragmatic approach and the meeting will be able to smooth over the rough edges. The day before, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said that the US presidential administration was satisfied with the volume of purchases from China in the first phase of the trade deal.