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Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair.
The EUR/USD currency pair immediately continued its upward movement on Monday night trading. Thus, after the signal from the MACD indicator (circled), which was formed on Friday, the pair continues to grow all the time. Of course, it was difficult to open new positions to buy this night, since it is quite difficult to trade at night. But those novice traders who have remained in long positions since Friday are currently in profit of about 40 points. New support and resistance levels (updated every day) such that the first target for the upward movement of 1.1865 has already been worked out. Thus, novice traders can fix a profit near it or wait for the MACD indicator to turn down to close purchases. Please also note that there is an upward trend line within our side channel 1.1696-1.1903. Therefore, it is recommended to sell the euro/dollar pair not before fixing the price below this line.
On Monday, August 17, no important publications are planned in the European Union and in America. Thus, on the one hand, trading today should be calm, and on the other hand, volatility (the distance between the maximum and minimum of the day) may be weak, and the price may often change the direction of movement within the day. Novice traders in such conditions are recommended to monitor the news feed for new data from the US on "coronavirus", as well as new speeches and comments by Donald Trump. Not the fact that they somehow affect the movement of the pair, but they form the fundamental backdrop for the dollar, which in the last three months remains negative, as is expressed in the illustration in the form of a falling US dollar by 12 cents in total during this time. With regards to the "coronavirus" in America, we can already say that the pandemic has slowed its spread a little, but the numbers of new cases of the disease still remain high. Thus, the background for the US currency has not changed in recent weeks, when the pair is flat. And the latest reports on GDP in America only make the situation worse, as traders are even less willing to buy the dollar due to the fall of the US economy by 33%, while the European economy lost only 12% in the second quarter.
On August 17, the following scenarios are possible:
1) Purchases of the pair on Monday remain relevant. However, around the level of 1.1865 (the first goal), it is already possible to fix the profit on purchases opened on Friday. New purchases of the euro currency are recommended to open after the correction, which is likely to be during today. The pair can go down to the upward trend line, rebound from it, or the MACD indicator will turn upward, which will allow you to open new long positions with the goals of 1.1892 and 1.1903. Above the level of 1.1903, we do not see a pair yet.
2) But we recommend that you start selling the pair if the local (intraday) trend changes. That is, the price will be fixed at the end of the next hour under the trend line, which may mean a fall to the lower line of the side channel - 1.1696. Accordingly, we recommend that you sell the euro currency (and buy the dollar) not before overcoming the trend line with the goals of 1.1797 and 1.1756. Given that there are rarely strong movements on Mondays, we believe that the pair may fall to 1.1797 today.
What's on the chart:
Price levels of support and resistance - levels that are targets when opening purchases or sales. You can place Take Profit levels near them.
Red lines - channels or trend lines that display the current trend and indicate which direction it is preferable to trade now.
Up/down arrows - show when you reach or overcome which obstacles you should trade up or down.
MACD indicator - a histogram and a signal line, the intersection of which is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use it in combination with trend lines (channels, trend lines).
Important speeches and reports (always contained in the news calendar) can greatly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their exit, it is recommended to trade as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp reversal of the price against the previous movement.
Beginners in the Forex market should remember that every trade cannot be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
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