20.08.202011:24 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on August 20, 2020

The main event of yesterday and throughout the week was the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve. It could be assumed that the main topic in the protocols will be the uncertainty of economic recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic. In fact, this is exactly what was reflected in the document. In addition, the leaders of the Federal Reserve System focused on low inflation and expressed the hope that in the future, inflation will be at higher levels. However, further interest rate cuts were not considered, but the current low rates will remain so for a long period of time, at least for the next few years. To sum up, there was nothing unexpected or extraordinary in the minutes of the last Fed meeting.

Looking at today's economic calendar, we can highlight the ECB's report on the monetary policy meeting, which will be published at 12:30 (London time), as well as initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States, which will be presented to market participants at 13:30 London time. It is time to turn your attention to the charts of the main currency pair of the Forex market.

Daily

Following the results of yesterday's trading, the pair declined significantly, ending Wednesday's session slightly below the red line of the Tenkan Ichimoku indicator. In addition, the pair returned to a strong technical level of 1.1860 and closed trading on August 19 at 1.1836. As you can see, today the attempts of the quote to return above 1.1860 have not been successful at the moment. The pair met strong resistance at 1.1868, after which it turned into a decline. If the market continues the downward movement chosen yesterday, then the next targets of bears for EUR/USD will be the levels 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1750 and 1.1715. However, the pair can get strong support in the important and strong price zone of 1.1820-1.1800. The task of the players to increase seems to be to prevent the price from going below 1.1800 and to keep trading on EUR/USD above this mark.

It is not for nothing that yesterday was defined as very important and in many ways determining for the US currency. However, in my opinion, it is too early to draw conclusions about the end of the upward trend in EUR/USD and its change to a downward trend. However, the fact of a false breakdown of the key resistance of sellers in the area of 1.1900-1.1915 makes you think about it. Given that the Fed's minutes were played in favor of the US dollar, as well as the presence of a bearish divergence of the MACD indicator on the daily chart, they are more likely to further reduce the euro/dollar. If the bulls on the instrument find the strength to return the quote above Tenkan and the once broken resistance level of 1.1863 and close the session higher, it will be possible to assume the resumption of upward dynamics.

H4

I built an ascending channel with parameters on this timeframe: 1.1185-1.1254 (support line) and 1.1905 (resistance line). At the time of completion of this article, the pair falls to the middle line of the channel (dotted), directly above which the 89 exponential moving average (black) passes. Both the dotted line and the 89 EMA are located near the most important level of 1.1800, so purchases from here are technically quite reasonable. However, right here and now there are attempts to break through the blue 50 simple moving average, and the decline to 1.1800 will become relevant only in the case of a breakdown of 50 MA.

H1

After yesterday's rather intensive decline, the pair was flat in Asian trading, but with the arrival of European players, volatility increased significantly. In my opinion, the main trading recommendation for today looks like purchases from the price range of 1.1825-1.1785. More aggressively, you can try to buy a pair from the current price of 1.1837. Since we did not see anything new and unexpected in yesterday's minutes, the current strengthening of the US dollar can most likely be considered a correction to the previous fall in the US currency, and the reason for this was the Fed's minutes. However, more detailed conclusions can be drawn only after the end of the trading week. At the moment, the weekly candle looks like a reversal, but the euro bulls still have time to correct the situation.