20.08.202014:59 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis of GBP/USD on August 20

The wave structure of the upward section of the trend, which began on March 20 and took the form of a triple zigzag, required adjustments and additions. A successful attempt to break the previous maximum led to a complication of the internal wave structure of the wave Z. Now the waves a-b-c are still visible inside this wave, however, the wave C takes a more complex five-wave form. If this is true, then the increase in quotes will continue for some time within the wave 5, C, Z. At the same time, the construction of an upward section of the trend is in any case nearing its completion.

If we look at the current wave pattern in more detail, we can see that the upward section of the trend and, in particular, the wave Z can already be completed due to yesterday's departure of quotes from the reached highs. However, in the past few months, demand for the US currency has been extremely low, and if it continues to be so, the wave 5, C, Z may take an even more complex and extended form. Unfortunately, from the current positions, the instrument can go down and start building a new downward section of the trend, or it can endlessly complicate wave 5. Nevertheless, a successful attempt to break the minimum of the expected wave 4, C, Z will indicate the readiness of the markets to lower the instrument.

The news background for the pound/dollar instrument on Wednesday was not strong. The report on inflation in the UK was quite strong, exceeded the expectations of the markets almost twice, and thanks to it, the British pound fell down. This is the market reaction to the optimistic report. Also yesterday, it was reported that Republicans and Democrats are holding secret talks on a new package of financial assistance for the American economy. Why secret or, at least, not advertised - it is unclear. It is this point that suggests the absurdity of such an assumption. However, some economists believe that this information was the reason for the strong growth of the US dollar. I will allow myself to disagree with them, since the information is too weak for both European currencies to collapse by 100-150 points on completely unconfirmed facts. Let me remind you that when the US Congress and the Fed approved trillion-dollar stimulus packages, there was no such strong market reaction. And then there was official information, not rumors. I believe that the reasons for the growth of the dollar lie in the fact that the wave marking has long assumed the completion of the upward section of the trend. Sooner or later, the markets had to reduce the demand for European currencies, which may have happened yesterday. Now you need to update the low of wave 4, then the probability of further decline in the instrument's quotes will increase.

General conclusions and recommendations:

The pound/dollar instrument resumed building the upward wave Z and could immediately complete it. Thus, I would recommend now to buy the instrument with the goals located near the estimated mark of 1.3368, which is equal to 200% for Fibonacci, for each signal of the MACD up, but at the same time, I still believe that the entire upward section of the trend is nearing its end. If this is true, then buying now is too risky.