25.08.202011:44 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Oil market faces long-awaited correction

The price of crude oil showed a multidirectional change Tuesday morning. It seems like the unfavorable weather conditions in the Gulf of Mexico causes pressure amongst market participants. Due to hurricanes, most of the oil production and oil refineries in the region suspended their activities. About 82% of the capacities were temporarily shut down.

So far, the situation with storms is uncertain. According to meteorologists, the first typhoon (Mario) came out not as strong as expected, however, the second one (Laura), meteorologists warned can be severe and perilous and is expected to approach the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. All these troubles with weather conditions will ultimately affect the global balance of power in energy flows. Thus, part of the supply of crude oil from the European region and the United States of America will be redirected. This has already become the reason for additional increases in the value of black gold in Europe.

However, one should not seriously fear the influence of tropical storms, since this is a temporary and rather short-term factor. The consequences of weather troubles will pass quickly enough, and the dynamics in the market will return to the previous rhythm. Everything will depend on how quickly the suspended oil rigs start up again and start to work in the same volume as before. And then again, the main and most important factors in the raw material market, which are won back by investors, will be the epidemiological situation and the spread of coronavirus infection in the world.

To date, the US has already lost 2% in its oil production amid hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. Nonetheless, this factor cannot be considered serious and would not deeply affect the oil markets.

Investors are mainly focused on the news on the preparation and release of a vaccine against coronavirus infection, as well as signals of an increase in demand for raw materials.

The price of futures contracts for Brent crude oil for delivery in October on the trading floor in London began to rise Tuesday morning by 0.2% or $ 0.09. Its current value is $ 45.22 per barrel. The trading results of Monday showed that the brand increased its value quite substantially by 1.76% or $ 0.78.

On the contrary, the price of futures contracts for light crude oil of the WTI brand for October delivery on the electronic trading floor in New York showed negative dynamics declining 0.19% or $ 0.08. Bringing it to the level of $ 42.54 per barrel. Monday's trading was more successful for the brand after gaining 0.66% or 0.28 dollars at the closing.

Market participants should not forget another fundamental factor that influences the balance of power in the raw materials market. This is the number of capacities for the extraction and production of oil in the US. Last Friday, this managed to put significant pressure on investors, which caused an inevitable correction in oil prices. A report from oilfield services company Baker Hughes on Friday indicated an increase of 11 units in the number of installations for the week, ended August 21. This makes a total of 183 installations. If the same rise is noted at the end of this week, this will become an additional factor for the concern of market participants, as it could threaten the balance in the hydrocarbon market. Meanwhile, the market is still in a very precarious position, and any nuances like this can blur the big picture that has already taken shape. It should be noted that the downward trend in the price of raw materials may continue for some time.