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The EUR / USD pair remained trading in the same price range at 1.1700 // 1.1810 // 1.1910, with which price has come to the middle level around 1.1810, where it is fluctuating in a narrow range at 1.1784 / 1.1850.
Because of this, volatility was only below 65 points, and such may give rise to accumulation, which would then result in an acceleration in the market.
Nonetheless, the main trading tactic is still on the basis of local operations, and the existing price range will serve as a lever for action.
Thus, just as discussed in the previous market review , traders were focused on a local surge in activity at the moment of a breakout from one of the limits of the range. However, the market continued to accumulate, so pending orders are still relevant until today.
It resulted in a stagnation, which can be seen clearly at the daily chart, and the oversoldness of the US dollar, as before, is felt throughout the Forex market.
The second estimate of Germany's Q2 GDP was published yesterday, and it turned out to be slightly better than the forecast. According to the report, the rate of economic recession accelerated from -2.2% to -11.2%, while the forecast indicated a slowdown to -11.7%.
In the afternoon, statistics on new home sales in the United States was released, and it also turned out better than the forecast. The report said that sales in July grew by 13.9% instead of 1.3%, and the previous data was revised in favor of an increase of 13.8% ---> 15.1%. The numbers grew from 791 thousand to 901 thousand.
Today, data US durable goods orders is scheduled to be published, and it is expected to increase to 4.3%, indicating a gradual recovery in the US economy.
Further development
Inspecting the trading chart, we can see the unstable movement in the price range 1.1784 / 1.1850, which indicates that in the very near future, the quote will come out and possibly break out of the price limits at 1.1784 / 1.1850.
Thus, based on this, consider the following trading strategies presented below:
- Set long positions from 1.1850 to 1.1882, as the next bullish move will depend on whether the bulls successfully pass the price level of 1.1885. Nonetheless, the target profit is the level of 1.1900.
- Open short positions from 1.1784 to 1.1755, and the next bearish move will depend on whether the bears successfully overcomes the level of 1.1750. Nevertheless, the target profit is the price level of 1.1700.
Recommendations remain the same as yesterday because the previously set pending orders are still relevant in the market.
Indicator analysis
Looking at the different time frames (TF), we can see that the indicators on both minute and hourly periods list a variety of trading signals, coinciding with the current trajectory. Meanwhile, the daily period also shows an unstable signal, but this is due to the constant trading of quotes within the price range 1.1700 - 1.1910.
Weekly volatility / Volatility measurement: Month; Quarter; Year
Volatility is measured relative to the average daily fluctuations, which are calculated every Month / Quarter / Year.
(Its dynamics on August 26 are calculated, taking into account the time this article is published)
Volatility today is 39 points, that is, 54% below the average value. It could increase on the condition that price will break out of the current range, or undergo another stagnation.
Key levels
Resistance zones: 1.1910 **; 1.2000 ***; 1.2100 *; 1.2450 **; 1.2550; 1.2825.
Support Zones: 1,1800; 1.1650 *; 1,1500; 1.1350; 1.1250 *; 1.1180 **; 1.1080; 1.1000 ***; 1.0850 **; 1.0775 *; 1.0650 (1.0636); 1.0500 ***; 1.0350 **; 1.0000 ***.
* Periodic level
** Range level
*** Psychological level
Also check the brief trading recommendations for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs here.
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