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The main event of today and the whole week will be the speech of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) at the economic symposium in Jackson Hole. It is expected that the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve will focus on monetary policy, as well as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the world and American economy.
If we recall the events of yesterday, data from the US on orders for durable goods significantly exceeded the expectations of economists. Orders for durable goods were expected to grow by 4.3% in July, however, the actual increase was 11.2%.
Daily
However, such a strong excess of the forecast value did not save or support the US dollar, rather the opposite. After a decline to 1.1772 and the release of positive statistics from the US, the US currency began to lose its previously won positions against the single European currency.
As a result, a candle with a long lower shadow and a small bearish body appeared on the daily chart, which in its shape resembles the "hanged" reversal model. Only here is the place where this candle appeared, does not give grounds to consider it as such, that is, a reversal. In fact, there is nothing to expand.
The nearest resistance is still represented by the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator, and the level of 1.1882 is slightly higher, where the maximum trading values were shown on August 21. The falsely broken resistance level is located at 1.1915 and the highs of August 18 at 1.1965.
The nearest support is indicated by yesterday's lows at 1.1772, slightly below the trading lows of August 21 at 1.1754, just below which is the Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator. I believe that a significant driver is needed to get out of the created range and break through strong support or resistance zones, which may be today's speech by Jerome Powell, which is scheduled at 14:10 London time. Most often, these important events bring the quote out of its stupor and give it a directional movement. Will we see something similar today? More likely yes than no.
H4
The situation also remained virtually unchanged on the four-hour chart. The simple moving average and the average line (dotted) of the ascending channel, whose parameters still resist attempts to grow: 1.1184-1.1254 (support line) and 1.1905 (resistance line).
The nearest support is provided by the 89 exponential moving average. However, the price was already falling under 89 EMA, however, it could not gain a foothold and returned higher. If we go to the levels, the nearest resistance levels are 1.1850 and 1.1882. Support levels are at 1.1772 and 1.1754.
H1
On the hourly chart, the situation is as uncertain as on older timeframes. At the end of this article, the EUR/USD pair is trading in a cluster of moving averages of 200 EMA, 89 EMA and 50 MA.
The technical picture on the considered timeframes does not give a clear idea of the future behavior of the price. It is clear that the pair consolidates before strong and sharp movements that can occur in any of the parties and even change its direction. In a normal situation, you could use the tactics of trading in ranges, that is, buy near support, and sell on the approach to resistance, however, the speech of the head of the Fed can be used by the market to break through the range and exit it in one of the parties. However, false breakouts cannot be excluded. Volatility will be high.
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