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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair yesterday performed a fall to the corrective level of 38.2% (1.3167), rebound from it and twice increased to the Fibo level of 0.0% (1.3264). The reasons for such strong movements are the same as the euro/dollar pair - Jerome Powell's speech. Now the pair's quotes will either perform a new rebound from the level of 0.0%, which will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency, which will increase the probability of continuing growth. Today at 14:00 London time, Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England, will speak at the same symposium in Jackson Hole, where Jerome Powell spoke yesterday. Traders were expecting a certain performance from Powell, however, do they expect anything special from Bailey? The Governor of the Bank of England may also make quite important statements. Traders may perceive all that Bailey said as important information. Therefore, we can only guess what Bailey will say and what the reaction of traders will be. Thus, I recommend that you should be on your guard when Bailey is performing.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair made a consolidation above the corrective level of 161.8% (1.3157). Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the next corrective level of 200.0% (1.3370). Also, the pair's quotes continue to be inside the upward trend corridor, so the current mood of traders continues to be characterized as "bullish". The rebound of the pair's exchange rate from the Fibo level of 200.0% will work in favor of the US currency and some drop in quotes. Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes rebounded from the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3199) and immediately returned to this level. Thus, now I am waiting for a new rebound from this level or closing above it, which will allow traders to count on further growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.3684).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed an increase to the lower downward trend line. A pullback from this line may allow the pair to perform a reversal in favor of the US dollar and resume the process of falling towards the approximately level of 1.1500. This is a long-term perspective.
Overview of fundamentals:
There were no news or economic reports in the UK on Thursday, and all traders' attention was focused on Jerome Powell's speech, so all other news and reports were not taken into account by traders.
The economic calendar for the US and the UK:
US - change in the level of expenditure and income of the population (12:30 GMT).
UK - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech (13:05 GMT).
On August 28, the UK news calendar contained a speech by Governor Andrew Bailey at Jackson Hole. This is the most important event of the day.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report on the British pound again showed a serious increase in the number of long contracts in the hands of speculators (the "Non-commercial" group). Thus, according to the latest COT report, we can only say that the "bullish" mood of the most important group of traders has only strengthened. At the same time, speculators reduced the number of short-contracts by 2.2 thousand. Thus, with such data, the British can resume the growth process at any time. I recommend treating the COT report as a fundamental signal. And every signal requires confirmation. Therefore, more attention should still be paid to graphical analysis. And the COT report only adds to this data. And the latest COT report says that the probability of a strong fall in the British pound is low.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders:
Today, I recommend selling the British currency with the goals of 1.3205 and 1.3167, if the rebound from the level of 0.0% on the hourly chart is performed. Purchases of the British dollar will be possible if the quotes close above the level of 0.0% on the hourly chart with the goal of 1.3370.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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