31.08.202010:33 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: Bullish mood to remain in the euro until the ECB meeting in September

Latest forecasts for the eurozone GDP raised demand for the euro and the pound in the market, having prospects of a good rise this 3rd quarter.

Unfortunately, investor sentiment was spoiled by the report on consumer confidence in Germany, which continued to decline in August, undermining hope for a V-shaped economic recovery in the country. One of the key points was the record decline in the income expectations index, which will certainly hold back German spending and seriously affect domestic consumption and retail sales.

The report from research group GfK said that the leading consumer confidence index in Germany fell to -1.8 points in September, much lower than economists' forecast, which is 0.5 points. The main pressure on expectations was created by the resurgence in coronavirus infection, which increases the likelihood of tighter quarantine measures.

The economic sentiment indicator, on the other hand, rose from 82.4 points to 87.7 points in August, according to the European Commission, and this increase was observed mainly on service-providing companies ever since quarantine restrictions were lifted in the country last summer. Nonetheless, this growth in sentiment will help maintain the fairly high forecast for economic growth in the eurozone in the 3rd quarter, that is, the eurozone GDP will approach 10% amid easing quarantine measures. Unfortunately, GDP is still unlikely to be above 6% at the end of the year.

In any case, many expect the European Central Bank to revise its own forecasts for economic growth following its next meeting on September 10, and this will have a positive effect on the European currency. Thus, demand for risky assets may rise in early September this year, and according to the latest forecast, the eurozone GDP will contract by 8.7% in 2020, but then will grow by 5.2% in 2021 and increase by 3.3 in 2022.

As for the United States, good data on the US economy was not enough to raise USD rates in the market. A rise in consumer spending this July still lacks the strength to push dollar price higher, the main reason for which was the more moderate spending of consumers in July than in the previous month. Thus, the report published by the US Department of Commerce indicated that personal consumption spending rose only 1.9% this July, with incomes not growing so much. Wages, investment income and government benefits rose just 0.4%, mainly due to the resurgence of coronavirus in the country. In addition, the curtailment of financial assistances only exacerbate this picture.

Another report on business activity in August this year contributed to the decline of the US dollar in the market. The latest PMI in Chicago shrank from 51.9 points to 51.2 points this month, while economists had expected it to rise to 52.5 points. This slowdown in economic activity is largely due to a surge in coronavirus infection last July.

Meanwhile, consumer sentiment in the US in August this year rose, according to the report of the University of Michigan. Their data indicated that the index rose from 72.5 points to 74.1 points, while economists had forecasted an index with 72.9 points.

With regards to the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, raising the price is still reachable, as long as the bulls are able to protect the support level of 1.1885. If they succeed, the quote will head to the highs of 1.1950, after which it will test the 20th figure in the price chart. However, if the bears turn out to be stronger, managing to reduce the price below 1.1885 by the end of the day, then pressure on the pair is likely to increase this early September, which will lead to new lows below 1.1850 and 1.1800.