01.09.202010:30 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis and forecast for AUD/USD on September 1, 2020

At the end of its meeting today, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) did not make any changes to monetary policy and kept the key interest rate at 0.25%. This decision coincided with the expectations of market participants. I would like to note that after the March rate cut, the head of the RBA, Philip Lowe, made it clear that large rate cuts in the bank will go only in the event of an emergency, which is not yet observed. In Australia, there are also outbreaks of the COVID-19 pandemic, however, they are much smaller than in the United States of America.

Regarding its future monetary policy, the RBA noted that it will remain soft until there is an improvement in the labor market and an increase in inflation. In general, the bank recognized that the consequences of the coronavirus epidemic were not as severe for the country's economy as they could have been.

Taking into account that the market closed the last month of summer yesterday, we will start analyzing the technical picture for the AUD/USD currency pair with the monthly timeframe.

Monthly

It is obvious that the pair has been growing for five months in a row. It is worth noting that the trend change occurred after the formation of an extremely long lower shadow for the March candle. Even then, it became clear that the market does not want to continue to decline.

From the technical nuances, it is necessary to highlight a confident breakdown of the 50 simple moving average (blue), which implies further growth of the instrument. If the dollar continues to remain under pressure, and demand for risky assets remains as strong, the "Aussie" may well rise to the lower limit of the Ichimoku indicator cloud, which passes at 0.7686. However, the path to this mark is quite long, and we will see more than once corrective pullbacks. In general, judging by the highest timeframe, the upward scenario has every chance of continuing.

Weekly

Last week, the pair ended with an impressive growth, breaking the reversal candle signal in the form of the "Tombstone" model and breaking through the 200 exponential moving average. This is now visible, the trend is to break reversal signals. If you look at it from the technical side and without irony, this behavior of the market indicates the strength of the current upward trend and a high probability that it will continue. At the moment of writing, the pair is testing a very strong technical level of 0.7400. If the weekly trading ends above this level, the road to the most important psychological and technical level of 0.7500 will open. The cancellation of the bullish scenario will be the closing of weekly trading below 200 EMA and below the red line of the Tenkan Ichimoku indicator.

H4

Given the strength of the mark of 0.7400, a corrective pullback may occur after the first test. To do this, I stretched the grid of the Fibonacci instrument to the rise of 0.7151-0.7414 and suggested considering purchases after a pullback to the first corrective level of 23.6. As a rule, with such strong trends, corrective pullbacks are limited to the first level. I suggest defining the zone for purchases as 0.7370-0.7355. You can try to buy from current prices.