09.09.202011:02 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Tantrum won't help (Review of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on 09/09/2020)

We will probably miss this amazing and fascinating circus when Brexit is done. The British government gives us a lot of unforgettable impressions day after day, so it is even difficult to imagine life without it. A new round of negotiations on the trade part of the divorce agreement has just begun, and London has already made so many top-level statements that will last for a whole year. Boris Johnson did not only first put out some incomprehensible ultimatums and threatened that if the EU did not make concessions, then Brexit would eventually take place without a deal, he also decided to move from words to actions. Today, a document will be published and according to rumors, it will direct the various ministries to unilaterally establish rules and regulations for the transit of goods and services between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, but only if London and Brussels fail to come to an agreement. This led to the resignation of several high-ranking officials of the British government. They expressed their disagreement with the actions of Boris Johnson, since this contradicts the documents already signed and ratified by the House of Commons. The core of the issue is the Belfast agreement, which provides for the abolition of the borders between Ireland and Northern Ireland. And this agreement was signed long before the UK joined the European Union, so it doesn't matter whether the UK is a member of the European Union or not, this agreement has nothing to do with it.

However, the problem is that Ireland is a member of the European Union, which means it is part of the single European market. And if the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland remains open, then Brexit loses all meaning. Moreover, goods and services will move freely between the UK and the rest of the European Union with only one warning – London will not be able to influence European customs and trade policy. Accordingly, Great Britain is losing economic sovereignty and thus, the whole essence of the negotiations between London and Brussels boils down to the fact that Great Britain is doing its best to defend its economic interests. It can do this either by remaining in the European Union, sharing its economic independence with its other members, or by terminating the Belfast Agreement. The first option contradicts the will of Her Majesty's subjects expressed during the referendum, while the second option undermines both the credibility of Great Britain itself, which simply takes and unilaterally refuses its obligations. But the worst thing is that it was possible to stop the activities of the Irish Liberation Army, thanks only to the signing of the Belfast Agreement. In fact, Boris Johnson's plans, which are to be published today, are just the second option, which is clearly more like a bluff, since no one in their right mind will take such a step. Also, the fact that restrictions on the exchange of goods and services between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK will only be imposed if the European Union does not make concessions clearly suggests that this is just primarily blackmail. In this case, the market reaction is remarkable. The pound quickly declined but the euro stood still, which clearly shows London's weakening position. In fact, the UK has long lost this battle, and it can only rely on the mercy of Brussels. But it seems that even such prominent humanists as Europeans forget about all sorts of moral matters and remember about such a thing as mercantilism, when it comes to money and potential economic benefits.

The Eurocurrency also declined, but only temporarily, since GDP third estimate of the euro area for the second quarter helped it defend its position which turned out to be slightly better than forecasts. It turns out that the rate of economic decline has accelerated from -3.2% to -14.7%, which was forecasted to accelerate to -15.0%. At the same time, the data is getting better and better with each new assessment, so it is quite possible that the final data will be even more positive, which can support the euro.

GDP (Europe):

In addition to the next loud statements regarding Brexit, which are completely unpredictable, data on the number of open vacancies in the United States will be published today. Their value should increase from 5,889 thousand to 6,000 thousand, which is certainly great and round, so the result will be most likely a little different. But this is not important, since the main thing is that the number of open vacancies itself should grow. Consequently, unemployment will continue to decline and this is an extremely positive factor.

Job Openings (United States):

On the other hand, the pound is under severe pressure due to Brexit, so the downward direction is the only way open for it. In this regard, it is likely that it will decline to 1.2900 by the end of the day or perhaps, even up to 1.2850. But this will depend on London's increasingly hysterical behavior.