21.09.202010:49 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis and forecast for GBP/USD on September 21, 2020

At last week's trading, the British pound managed to slightly correct against the US dollar after the previous strong fall. However, the situation is still quite difficult for the "British", and forecasts for this currency pair are mostly bearish. The negative impact on sterling continues to be caused by investor's concerns about the UK's ability to leave the European Union by concluding a full-fledged trade deal. Also putting pressure on the pound is the position of the Bank of England, which continues to explore the possibility of introducing negative interest rates and the consequences that this may have in monetary policy.

Weekly

If you go to the analysis of the technical picture for GBP/USD and start with the results of the week ended, it is worth noting that following the trading results on September 14-18, the pound/dollar pair strengthened, ending the session at 1.2911. At the same time, it is characteristic that the attempts of the bulls to return the pound's quote above the most important psychological and technical level of 1.3000 were not successful. The reason for this was the level itself, and the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku indicator, which blocked the further way up.

Now the Tenkan line is already at 1.3120 and the 200 exponential moving average passes at 1.3140. From a technical point of view, until the players on the exchange rate rise overcome the price zone of 1.3120-1.3140, the pound/dollar currency pair is likely to continue to maintain bearish prospects, which means it will remain under pressure. However, there is fairly strong support at the bottom in the area of 1.2800-1.2765, which is represented by 89 exponential and 50 simple moving averages, as well as the Kijun line of the Ichimoku indicator. Thus, to resume the bearish scenario, players need to push through not only the important and strong level of 1.2800 but also the mark of 1.2765, where the 50 MA is located. In my personal opinion, the closing price of the current weekly trading will be extremely important. If it turns out to be above 1.3000, there will be prerequisites for a rise to higher prices and testing for a breakdown of the strong technical zone of 1.3120-1.3140. Otherwise, there is a high probability of continuing the implementation of the downward scenario, the immediate goals of which are indicated above.

Daily

As can be clearly seen on the daily chart, all attempts of the pair to gain a foothold above the Ichimoku indicator cloud and break above 1.3000 failed. As a result of Friday's decline, the pound/dollar pair fell into the cloud, where it ended trading on September 18. This signal is quite negative and makes the subsequent decline more likely than the growth of the instrument. However, the breakdown of the key resistance zone of 1.3000-1.3030 on this timeframe is likely to change the situation in favor of growth, which means that the implementation of the bullish scenario is most likely.

As you can see, at the end of this article, the pair demonstrates strengthening and intentions to once again try to get out of the Ichimoku cloud, and then try to break through the already designated resistance area of 1.3000-1.3030. If you go to the trading recommendations for GBP/USD, the most relevant at the moment are sales of the pound from the price zone of 1.3000-1.3030, especially if signals are corresponding to opening short positions on smaller timeframes in the form of bearish models of Japanese candlesticks. Purchases at the moment seem to be riskier, and I recommend that you refrain from opening long positions for the time being. Tomorrow we will look at the H4 and H1 charts. If there are good options for entering the market, it is not a sin to take advantage of this.