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The degree of intensity in the currency market declined during the Asian session on Thursday. The dollar pairs who are part of the majority no longer make violent reactions to the news flow in the United States, since it is becoming clear that Mr. J Biden will win the presidential election. He only just needs one more electoral vote, which can officially lead him to the White House. In turn, Mr. Trump can now only rely on the Supreme Court, where he will appeal the results of the vote count. Thus, in general, we have a more or less understandable and predictable situation.
The currency market is taking a wait-and-see position, assessing the judicial forecasts for the claims of the (still) current president. In addition, we should note Fed's meeting will be held today, which results can likely affect the dollar bulls' position.
However, the main topic in the currency market is still the US elections. Despite Joe Biden's significant advantage, the intrigue still persists, although the Republicans' hopes for a victory for their leader are gradually fading. According to FOX News, current President Donald Trump has 214 electoral votes, while Biden has 264 out of the required 270 as of November 5 in the morning. Although 60 electoral votes remain to be distributed, the Democratic leader needs the support of only six of them. American media believes that it is enough for Mr. Biden to win in one more state (except for Alaska, which gives the votes of three electors) to defeat his opponent and become the new president of the United States. So, according to preliminary data, he wins in such key States as Michigan and Wisconsin. If the democratic candidate holds the advantage there, it is highly likely that he will become the 46th President of the United States.
Meanwhile, the head of the White House resorted to another tactic – judicial. Trump's side filed a lawsuit in a Michigan court to suspend the counting of votes in this state. Lawyers believe that the Republican party observers were not given "proper full access" to the procedure for opening ballot boxes and counting ballots. This is the third such lawsuit in the course of the election. So, the headquarters of the current President demanded a recount of votes in Wisconsin and in the state of Georgia. However, American experts have different opinions on the judicial prospects of the above-mentioned claims, while the OSCE has already criticized Trump's statements about alleged mass violations in the elections. According to the organization's representatives, such statements harm the US democratic institutions' credibility. They also said that the process of appealing the procedure for holding elections in the States started too late.
Against this background, it is already unlikely for Trump to win the election: to do this, it is necessary to maintain leadership in those states where he is currently winning and capture such wavering states as Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin. The task is difficult, but theoretically doable. On the other hand, Biden needs to similarly maintain victory where he is already in the lead, with a fixed success in any state where the number of electors is more than six. This is based on the data of the FOX News TV channel, which claims that the Democratic leader already has 264 electoral votes.
As for the congressional by-elections, the current situation is not as pleasant for the Democrats as with the presidential race. According to preliminary data, the Republicans retain their majority in the Senate, although they are reducing their advantage (from 53 to 52 out of 100). The Democrats, in turn, retained the majority of the seats in the House of Representatives. They reportedly won 227 seats in the US House of Representatives, while Republicans won 208 out of 435 seats. In short, the representatives of the Democratic Party could not change the situation in their favor by controlling the Senate, but, on the other hand, they did not lose the House of Representatives. In this case, the balance of power remained almost unchanged: the Democrats lost several seats in the Lower House, while the Republicans lost one seat in the Upper House but both retained control.
To sum it up, Mr. Biden won in the most important states - Wisconsin and Michigan and he has now 264 electoral votes out of the required 270. However, votes in four key states - Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Nevada have not yet been counted. If Biden wins at least in Nevada, then this will bring him the missing 6 votes, and, accordingly, an overall victory. In disputed states, Trump is filing lawsuits in courts demanding a recount, accusing the Democrats of "cheating" votes. At the same time, the OSCE mission called the US elections "well organized." At the same time, observers did not identify violations during the postal vote, calling Trump's words about falsification "unsubstantiated."
In view of such events, the US dollar is slowly losing its positions in the main currency pairs. Thus, the buyers of EUR/USD have finally consolidated within the 17th figure, while showing bullish moods. In my opinion, we can already talk about the priority of long positions in the pair today. There is a high probability that Biden will make the "last push", which means that the probability of an upward impulse of the EUR/USD pair is also high. The initial goal to rise is the level of 1.1850, which is the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart and a kind of "price ceiling." Traders cannot manage to consolidate above this goal over the past six weeks.
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