13.11.202013:53 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: plan for the American session on November 13 (analysis of morning deals)

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

In the first half of the day, there were no signals to enter the market. The 5-minute chart shows that the price did not reach the designated support level of 1.1797, not to mention any false breakout formation. The released data on the GDP growth rate in the Eurozone turned out to be worse than economists' forecasts, which limited the pair's upward potential while maintaining low market volatility and a narrow side channel. It looks like the trading week will end around the level of 1.1797, around which the main struggle for direction was conducted.

From a technical point of view, nothing has changed. The emphasis in the second half of the day will be shifted to the important data on the US economy that can restore pressure on the euro. If buyers of the euro still manage to protect the support of 1.1797, then the next formation of a false breakout there will be a good entry point into long positions to further restore the pair to the resistance area of 1.1860, where I recommend fixing the profits. The longer-term target will be a weekly high of 1.1915. If the bulls do not show much activity, and the data turns out to be much better than economists' forecasts, a return of EUR/USD to the level of 1.1797 is not excluded. In this case, in the second half of the day, buyers will focus on protecting the support of 1.1743. However, it is only possible to open long positions on the first test based on a correction of 15-20 points within the day. A larger reversal in favor of buyers will occur if they manage to form a false breakout at 1.1743.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

The initial goal of sellers is the return of the level of 1.1797 that they managed to miss yesterday in the morning and failed to return after the release of weak fundamental statistics on inflation in the United States. Only the consolidation below 1.1797 and its test from the reverse side from bottom to top forms a more convenient entry point for the continuation of the downward trend. This will happen only after the release of good indicators on consumer confidence in the United States and inflation expectations of the University of Michigan. In this case, the nearest target of the bears will be at least 1.1743. A test of this level will indicate the actual formation of a new bear market for EUR/USD. However, only a break in this area will increase the pressure on the pair and quickly push it to a minimum of 1.1701, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the bulls are stronger and continue to push the pair up, then it is best not to rush to sell but to wait for the update of the larger resistance of 1.1860. I recommend selling EUR/USD immediately for a rebound from the maximum of 1.1915, based on a correction of 15-20 points within the day.

Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for November 3 recorded a reduction in long positions and an increase in short positions. But despite this, buyers of risky assets believe in the continuation of the bull market, although they prefer to act cautiously. Thus, long non-commercial positions fell from 217,443 to 208,237, while short non-commercial positions rose to 67,888 from 61,888. The total non-commercial net position fell to 140,349 from 155,555 a week earlier. It should be noted that the bullish sentiment on the euro in the medium term remains rather high, especially after the victory of Joe Biden, who intends to endow the American economy with the next largest monetary aid package for more than $ 2 trillion.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is above 30 and 50 daily moving averages, indicating that the bulls are trying to regain control of the market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

If the pair declines, the lower limit of the indicator around 1.1755 will act as support, from which you can buy euros.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.