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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US dollar on January 8 and resumed the process of falling. The rebound of the pair's rate from the downward trend line increased the probability of continuing the fall of quotes in the direction of the Fibo levels of 61.8% (1.3458) and 50.0% (1.3406). At the same time, the epidemiological situation in the UK continues to deteriorate. Even though both Britain and the United States have already approved several vaccines and started vaccination procedures, it will take at least 6-9 months when most of the population will be vaccinated. In the meantime, the coronavirus continues to spread and only the rate of its spread is increasing. In Britain, anti-records have been updated over the past week. If during the second wave (in November), the maximum number of diseases recorded per day was about 27 thousand, now, in January, this number has increased to 68 thousand. In America, no one is surprised by the figures of 250-300 thousand new cases per day. All attention is focused on politics and Donald Trump. We can now assume that traders have finally stopped buying the British because of the potential problems that Brexit and the third "lockdown" will bring. But for now, this is just a guess.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair fell to the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3481). The rebound of the pair's rate from this level will work in favor of the British and the resumption of growth in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.3701). Closing quotes below the level of 100.0% will work in favor of continuing the fall in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.3291).
GBP/USD - Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes performed a consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513). Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084). Closing the pair below the level of 100.0% will work in favor of the beginning of the fall in quotes.
GBP/USD - Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair closed above the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased.
Overview of fundamentals:
There were no important economic reports in the UK on Friday. And reports from America were not taken into account by traders, as they were weak, and the US dollar showed growth.
US and UK news calendar:
On January 11, the UK and US calendars are completely blank, so there will be no background information today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from January 5 showed the same minimal activity of major players as in the case of the euro currency. During New Year's week, the "Non-commercial" category of traders opened 1,028 long contracts and 1,111 short contracts. That is, almost an equal number. Thus, I cannot conclude that during the reporting week, the mood of speculators became more "bullish" or more "bearish". Judging by the total number of open contracts in this category, the mood remains more "bullish". However, on December 1, the situation was exactly the opposite, and the pound was growing even then. In general, there are no strong changes in the mood of major players.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
It is recommended to buy the British dollar today when the pair rebounds from the level of 100.0% (1.3481) on the 4-hour chart with the goal of the trend line on the hourly chart. It was recommended to sell the pound sterling at the rebound from the trend line on the hourly chart with the target level of 76.4% (1.3522). Now this goal is taken, so we continue to remain in sales with targets of 1.3458 and 1.3406 until a possible rebound from the level of 100.0% on the 4-hour chart.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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