19.01.202110:36 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis of GBP/USD on January 19. Will the markets buy the pound?

The section of trend, which started on September 23, has taken a complete five-wave form. However, the internal wave pattern of the supposed wave 5 in 5 remains to be not fully convincing, which may require some additions and correction in the entire wave 5. Nevertheless, the upward trend has been long nearing its end. On the other hand, the demand for the pound remains quite high. A successful attempt to break the previous high (around 1.37th mark) will further complicate the upward section of trend.

The wave marking in the smaller time frame also made certain changes and may likely be corrected again. Currently, it is quite possible to continue the quotes' growth within the 5 in 5 in 5 wave, but the wave pattern of wave 5 to 5 does not look quite convincing. In this case, it is advised to be cautious with the subtle point. A successful attempt to break down an important 127.2% Fibonacci level will indicate that the markets are ready for a new increase. An unsuccessful one, in turn, can lead to the end of the whole upward section of the trend.

The pound continues to be around the 375th mark regardless of the current events. It has not risen so high since 2018. However, the coronavirus situation in the UK continues to worsen, while its national currency reaches new highs after the Brexit period. According to recent studies, Britain is leading in the global number of deaths from coronavirus per 1 million people. At the same time, the economic situation remains difficult. Despite the fact that the agreement with the European Union was reached last minute, this does not mean that there will be no decline for British business. In almost any case, the service sector will suffer. It should be recalled that the UK is now on its third lockdown, which will definitely lead to a new decline in GDP. This has already been indirectly hinted by the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, who recently announced that GDP in the fourth quarter will remain unchanged, although other forecasts speak in favor of a 2% reduction. In the United States, 4% is predicted for the same quarter.

Therefore, the pound's high position is quite surprising. But if you look at the situation in annual terms, it has been declining over the past 13 years. Was there a global trend reversal in 2020? For now, it is suggested to pay special attention to the level of 1.3700, as the pair has been moving around it for several weeks. However, it cannot successfully break through it.

Overall conclusion and recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair can continue to form the upward section of the trend anytime. Thus, it is recommended to buy this pair after it successfully breaks through the 127.2% Fibonacci level, with targets located near the 40th mark located within the expected 5 in 5 in 5 wave of the upward trend section. But if it fails to do so, the quotes may leave the reached highs. In addition, you can gradually look at sales, since three unsuccessful attempts to break through the 37th figure suggest a possible completion of the upward section of the trend.