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Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair initially tried to start a downward correction last night, which was enough for the MACD indicator to turn down, but after that it resumed its upward movement and passed another 30 points. These movements were extremely difficult and even impossible to work out. First, they were nocturnal. Secondly, not a single signal was generated last night. Thus, in comparison with yesterday evening, the technical picture has not changed much. Novice traders are still encouraged to wait for the MACD indicator to discharge and create a new buy signal within a new upward trend, which appeared after breaking the upper border of the descending channel.
In terms of foundation, Wednesday is an extremely important day. Today the long-awaited inauguration of Joe Biden will take place, and Donald Trump will leave his post as president of the United States. In fact, there is nothing special about the inauguration procedure. Joe Biden only has to take the oath of office, make a speech, and perform a few other extremely symbolic actions. Some fear that the "attack on the Capitol" will be repeated on this day. Although Trump has finally given up in his attempts to reverse the election results, do not forget that he has not left big politics, and the US Congress will still consider impeachment, which can be announced after Trump leaves office. Thus, there may be riots today in Washington, that is if Trump's supporters decide to act. But, this may not be the case. In the first case, the euro/dollar pair may be slightly tossed from side to side, in the second – the calm movement will continue. The European Union will also publish its inflation report today, which is unlikely to have any impact on the pair's movement. It is expected that inflation will be -0.3% in annual terms, that is, it will remain unchanged compared to the previous period. Therefore, there will be nothing to react to unless the consumer price index sharply accelerates or slows down even more. No more macroeconomic and political events planned for today.
Possible scenarios on January 20:
1) Long positions became convenient since the price settled above the descending channel. However, the MACD indicator was already turning to the downside, and a new strong buy signal had not yet appeared. Thus, we advise you to wait for a downward correction, afterwards you can monitor the appearance of a new buy signal with targets at resistance levels 1.2157 and 1.2187.
2) Trading for a fall has been canceled. Thus, even if quotes begin to sharply fall now, we do not recommend working it out. Take note that the current fundamental background practically does not participate in pricing, therefore the only analysis tool is the technical one. Therefore, you need to trade strictly according to the system.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.
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