By this morning, the euro has reached the upper border of the corrective range of 1.2132/77. The speech of Christine Lagarde following the European Central Bank meeting was moderately negative; she warned of a contraction in the economy for the fourth quarter and gave hints of deterioration in the first quarter, but investors placed excessive optimism on the upcoming "Biden plan", which previously provides for additional printing of $1.9 trillion. Only investors lose sight of the fact that increased US borrowing leads to a washout of the dollar mass from other major world regions, which leads to an increase in demand for dollars and its value.
We expect the price to go out of the 1.2132/77 range to the downside on Monday, and today the market should drop the volumes that it has accumulated over the past two days. We hope to see the quote below 1.2065 by the middle of next week, that is, below the MACD indicator line on the daily chart. The following economic data may contribute to this: on Monday, the fall in the business climate of Germany IFO in January from 92.1 to 91.9, on Tuesday, an increase in consumer confidence in the United States from 88.6 to 89.0, on Wednesday, an increase in orders for durable goods in the United States for December by 0.9% and, of course, the Federal Reserve meeting, at which another warning about the rate hike may sound when inflation reaches 2.0%. The point here is that inflation in the United States, as in Europe, is accelerating due to the uncontrollable growth of the money supply, and the current inflation in the United States of 1.4% can reach 2.0% in three months. If such a verbal pattern gains popularity in the media, the euro will inevitably collapse.
The price is slightly above the MACD line on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is growing, which indicates the intention of the price to stay in the range until the beginning of the next week.
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