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Almost all Friday, the euro was growing slowly but surely. Of course, the scale of growth is not that significant, but it is still growth. At the same time, the growth took place against the background of rather insignificant statistical data. Moreover, the European statistics came out slightly worse than forecasts. Yes, the growth rate of corporate lending, as expected, accelerated from 6.9% to 7.0%. However, the growth rate of consumer lending, instead of accelerating from 3.1% to 3.2%, remained unchanged. It's another matter that the data on the lending market are not so significant, and the indicators themselves have remained practically unchanged.
Consumer lending (Europe):
US reports turned out to be better than forecasts in many ways. In particular, personal incomes increased by 0.6%, while their growth was expected by only 0.1%. Personal expenses, instead of falling by -0.6%, decreased by only -0.2%. Another thing is that the previous data were revised for the worse. Income from -1.1% to -1.3%, and expenses from -0.4% to -0.7%. But no revision of the previous data had any effect on the market, since the euro stopped rising just before the US reports were released.
Personal Income (United States):
The final data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector will be published today, it is unlikely to affect the market, since they should coincide with the preliminary estimate, which showed that it fell from 55.2 to 54.7 in Europe. The market has already taken this data into account. But the report on the unemployment rate is of much greater interest, since it is incredibly significant. Nevertheless, it should remain unchanged, which means that investors have nothing to focus on. So, macroeconomic reports will not directly affect investor sentiment, who are more likely to now keep in mind the upcoming data on GDP and inflation. But all this will happen on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Unemployment rate (Europe):
The preliminary estimate of the index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector showed growth from 57.1 to 59.1. Again, the market has already taken this into account, and no particular reaction should follow.
Manufacturing PMI (United States):
The EURUSD pair showed an interest in growth last Friday, as a result the euro jumped by around 60 points, towards the 1.2155 level, which did not lead to anything crucial in the market.
The general market dynamics is below average, while speculative activity is periodically manifested, but in a localized context.
If we proceed from the quote's current location, then we can see a sluggish swing, where the quote froze within the 1.2130 mark.
Considering the trading chart in general terms, the daily period, here, as before, you can see a medium-term upward move, where the current quote follows the structure of the corrective movement.
We can assume that, taking into account the fluctuations and the price movements without drastic changes, market participants continue to focus on the 1.2055/1.2190 range, at least until the end of the day.
Regarding the crucial price changes, the price must settle outside one or the other limit of 1.2055/1.2190, on a four-hour period. In this case, we will receive a more or less clear signal about the direction of the market.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that the indicators of technical instruments on the 1-minute and 1-hour intervals signal a long position due to the price rebound from support at 1.2055. The day period has a neutral signal.
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