19.02.202116:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis for GBP/USD on February 19. The services sector in the UK revives, but retail sales are falling

The pound began another move of quotes from the reached highs this week, however, it lasted very short. Thus, the next attempt to build a corrective wave 4-5-5 ended in nothing. Therefore, I interpret the current increase in quotes as a continuing construction of a wave of 3-5-5. If this is true, then the increase in quotes will continue with the targets already above the 40th figure. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 161.8% Fibonacci level could throw the instrument's quotes down, but this did not happen. The markets absolutely without any problems held the British currency to the 40th figure and now they are thinking about further purchases. I have more than once questioned the validity of such a strong increase in the Briton. If everything was fine in the UK now, then there would be no questions. However, according to the latest data, the country will see a strong increase in the unemployment rate in the next few months, the Bank of England is still considering the introduction of negative rates and it seems that this will happen in 2021, and the economy is recovering but at a slow pace.

Already, two members of the Bank of England's monetary committee have openly stated that this may happen in the near future (Silvana Tenreyro and Michael Saunders). Moreover, for example, today's economic reports from the UK were very contradictory. If the index of business activity in the service sector unexpectedly rose to 49.7 points (with a forecast of 42.1), then retail sales fell by 8.2% month-on-month and 5.9% year-on-year, although the markets expected much more positive reporting. But, as usual, the markets paid attention to the positive report on business activity and did not pay attention to the failed retail sales. Using this method, the instrument can reach the mark of 1.50 in the coming weeks. Back in the UK, the business activity index for the manufacturing sector was released, which also rose to 54.9 points. Business activity indices in the US also turned out to be quite high, and in general, all these indices and reports again passed by the markets.

To be honest, it's hard for me to imagine what could stop the pound from going up. As I said, there is no apparent reason for such strong and long-term growth. Thus, traders are still recommended to buy the instrument for each new MACD signal "up". There is no reason to give any goals now. I am still waiting for the construction of a wave 4 commensurate with wave 2, and only after the construction of this wave is completed, we can expect the entire upward trend section to end soon. And until then, the increase in quotes can continue, and the upward section of the trend can become infinitely more complicated. I have already said that in trading, you need to look for clear and simple wave structures, so now I see no point in understanding wave 3.

The section of the trend, which originates on September 23, took a five-wave fully equipped form. But the internal wave structure of the proposed wave 5-5 still does not look entirely convincing and may require additions and adjustments. The upward section of the trend has been nearing its end for a long time, but the high demand for the British is constantly leading to the complication of this section.