01.03.202116:01 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD: plan for the US session on March 1 (analysis of morning trades)

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to:

In my morning forecast, I recommended opening short positions from the level of 1.2093 and buying the euro for a rebound in the support area of 1.2037. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened. It is clear to see how the bulls try to get above the resistance of 1.2093 several times, but each time the pair bounces off this range, indicating a possible further fall in the euro, which happened. As a result, the fall was stopped in the support area of 1.2037, from where I recommended buying the euro immediately on the rebound. The upward movement was 20 points.

The released data on the manufacturing activity of the eurozone countries did not help the European currency, and now the focus is shifted to similar reports that will be released in the afternoon on the US economy. Good indicators can lead to a new wave of falling euro. Therefore, only the formation of a false breakout in the support area of 1.2037 will lead to the formation of a signal to buy the euro to recover to the area of the morning resistance of 1.2093, where I recommend taking the profits. There are also moving averages that play on the side of sellers. A more distant target will be the maximum of 1.2140, however, we are unlikely to reach it today. If there is no bull activity with a repeated decline to the low of 1.2037, it is best to postpone long positions until the update of the larger support of 1.2003, from where you can buy the euro immediately for a rebound in the expectation of an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to:

It was not possible to break above the level of 1.2093 and the pressure on the euro increased. Now the bears are focused on breaking through and consolidating below the support of 1.2037. A test of this level on the reverse side will lead to a reversal of the divergence that is now looming on the MACD indicator and to a larger sell-off of the euro already in the area of the lows of 1..2003 and 1.1952, where I recommend taking the profits. If the demand for the euro returns during US trading, and this will happen only with very weak fundamental statistics on manufacturing activity in the US, then it is best not to rush to sell, but to wait for the formation of a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2093, from where you can open short positions immediately for a rebound with the aim of a downward correction of 20-25 points within the day.

Let me remind you that in the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for February 16, there were no special changes in the positions of major players, which once again indicates the temporary equilibrium of the pair before a new wave of its growth in the spring of this year. Another major decline of the pair down last week was played out, and this once again confirms the theory that the US dollar continues to be less in demand among investors. Therefore, a more correct approach to the market should be to buy the European currency on the average market. A good plus for the euro will be the moment when the European countries begin to actively curtail quarantine and isolation measures, and the service sector will once again work in full force, which will lead to an improvement in economic prospects and also strengthen the EUR/USD pair. The COT report shows that long non-profit positions rose from 220,943 to 222,895, while short non-profit positions rose from 80,721 to 82,899. As a result, the total non-profit net position declined slightly after rising last week to 140,006 from 140,222. The weekly closing price was 1.2132 against 1.2052 a week earlier, indicating the presence of buyers in the market.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted below 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates that the pressure on the pair remains.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A break of the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2037 will lead to a larger sell-off of the euro. In the case of growth, the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2100 will act as a resistance.

Description of indicators

• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. The graph is marked in yellow.
• Moving average (moving average determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. The graph is marked in green.
• MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence - moving average convergence / divergence) Fast EMA period 12. Slow EMA period 26. SMA period 9
• Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
• Non-profit speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
• Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
• Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
• Total non-commercial net position is the difference between the short and long positions of non-commercial traders.