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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency on Monday and consolidated under the corrective level of 50.0% (1.3900). This was followed by the rebound of the quotes from the same level and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.3820). However, if we take into account the fact that over the past two weeks, the British dollar has been moving mostly sideways, then I do not see the pound/dollar pair below the level of 1.3820. As in the case of the euro/dollar pair, this week, there will be several quite important events that can seriously affect the mood of traders. First, it's the Fed meeting on Wednesday, and second, it's the Bank of England meeting on Thursday. However, these events will occur tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. And today, the pair can continue to trade in the demo mode of the following days, that is, very sluggishly. The information background, by the way, corresponds to this movement of the pair. In the US today, reports on retail sales and industrial production will be released, which may cause interest among traders, however, I would not count on them very much. 30 to 40 points of movement is the maximum that these reports can cause. Meanwhile, sources close to the British Prime Minister said that Boris Johnson admitted the government's mistake with the first lockdown last spring. The source also reports that Johnson was let down by health advisers who misjudged the state of the National Health System. Sources also say that the high rate of vaccination is undoubtedly a credit to Johnson, but questions also remain about why the UK has the highest death rate from coronavirus in Europe and the fifth in the world?
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed another drop to the upward trend line and this time it looks like a close will be performed under this line. Fixing the pair's rate at the same time and under the level of 1.3850 will allow traders to count on a slight drop in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.3701). The rebound of quotes from the level of 1.3850 can still return the pair to an upward trend.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes continue to be above the ascending trend line. In the long term, the "bullish" mood of traders is still preserved. Closing the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084) will work in favor of continuing growth towards the next corrective level of 161.8% (1.4812).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased.
Overview of fundamentals:
There were no major reports or other events in the UK and US on Monday. The information background was practically absent on this day.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
US - retail trade volume change (12:30 GMT).
US - change in industrial production (13:15 GMT).
On Tuesday, the calendar of economic events in Britain is empty, but a couple of reports will be released in the US, which you can pay attention to. Strong numbers in these reports will help the dollar to rise to 1.3820.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from March 9 on the British was quite interesting. A week earlier, I drew readers' attention to the fact that the nature of the COT reports on the euro and the pound were opposite. This time, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders in the UK also became more "bearish". During the reporting week, speculators closed 5.5 thousand long contracts and opened only 344 short contracts. Thus, the belief that the Briton will continue its growth is falling among the major players. But it is falling at a much weaker rate than that of the major players in the European market. So the British pound is much less likely to fall than the euro and much more likely to rise than the euro.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:
It is recommended to buy the British dollar if it closes above the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.3900) on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3980. It is recommended to sell the pound if a close is made under the trend line on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.3820 and 1.3721.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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