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In today's article on the AUD/USD currency pair, we will summarize the results of last week, see how the current five-day trading period started, and try to determine the prospects for the price movement of this interesting trading instrument.
Weekly
As mentioned on Monday, the US dollar fell against all major competitors last week, with the exception of the Japanese yen. Based on this, it is not difficult to guess that the Australian dollar also strengthened its position against the American namesake. But what does this give in the subsequent perspective of price movement? Nothing yet, as the key resistance near the most important psychological and technical level of 0.8000 actively prevents the further strengthening of the quotes. This is clearly seen on the weekly price chart.
It was from the 0.8000 mark that a strong rebound down occurred and a bearish reversal candlestick analysis pattern was formed. However, by the standards of the weekly time frame, the decline was not that significant, and it was limited by the level of 0.7622, where the pair found strong support and turned upward again. However, once again, the bulls can't rise to 0.8000 and retest this important level for a breakout on the "Aussie". If today's updated economic forecasts by the Fed and the speech of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve disappoint market participants, the pair will soar, but whether it reaches 0.8000, the reaction of investors to the evening events will show. As for the refinancing rate, there is practically no doubt that it will remain the same in the United States.
Daily
On the daily chart, we observe a trading range of 0.7700-0.7800, in which the pair is traded. I will assume that the exit from the current daily range will take place today since it is difficult to find a more suitable case for this than the results of the extended Fed meeting with Powell's press conference. The breakout of 0.7700 and the close of trading below this mark will indicate a bearish market for the Aussie, and a true breakout of the strong support at 0.7622 will confirm this opinion. If the pair grows today and completes the session above 0.7800, then there will be prerequisites for a retest of resistance, which is near the key level of 0.8000. However, if this happens, it will not happen immediately, because 0.8000 is still very far away.
Trading ideas around this moment seem to be vague. Firstly, the pair is now trading in a flat, and where the quotes will shoot later, only the Fed knows. Second, new forecasts for the world's leading economy and Jerome Powell's rhetoric will be the factors that could determine the direction of the AUD/USD. Nevertheless, if we consider both options for positioning, and this is exactly what should be done today, then sales look technically justified after the rise to the price zone 0.7750-0.7800. Buying, in turn, should be considered after declines to the area of 0.7700-0.7650. At the moment, it is not possible to offer other more interesting trading ideas, taking into account the current situation.
Good luck!
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