25.03.202110:59 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on March 25, 2021

In many European countries, the COVID-19 situation develops and continues as a never-ending drama series. So, in Germany, the government of the country decided to cancel the lockdown for the upcoming Easter holidays. Moreover, German Chancellor Angela Merkel publicly acknowledged the initially imposed restrictions on the time of Easter celebrations as a mistake, for which she apologized to the citizens of Germany. Let me remind you that the measures to tighten the quarantine were taken by the regional authorities of Germany a few days ago and came under a barrage of criticism from business representatives and the public. Nevertheless, the Cabinet of Ministers of Germany does not rule out the introduction of a ban on travel outside the country, and more specifically, is considering the introduction of a ban on tourist trips to other countries to prevent the epidemiological situation in the country from getting worse.

Meanwhile, in prosperous Belgium, the growth of people infected with coronavirus has increased by as much as 40% over the past week. In this regard, the Belgian authorities have decided to close hairdressers and beauty salons until April 25. Shops, other than grocery stores, can only be visited by making an appointment in advance. Educational institutions will resume full-fledged work no earlier than April 19. An equally difficult situation with the spread of COVID-19 continues to remain in France and Poland. In general, the authorities of many European countries are seriously concerned that the upcoming Easter holidays, which imply meetings and contacts between people, may lead to another outbreak of an already considerable number of coronavirus infections.

In his speech yesterday and his second monetary policy report before the relevant committee of the US Congress, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the growth of US bond yields, which he called an orderly and controlled process. The head of the Federal Reserve also believes that the growth in bond yields indicates faith in the American economy. And of course, Jerome Powell did not miss the opportunity to emphasize once again that the decisive contribution to the US economic recovery was made by the right and timely fiscal support, referring to the agency he led and Congress, which adopted a large-scale financial assistance package. If you look at today's economic calendar, the main events of March 25 can be considered reports from the United States on initial applications for unemployment benefits, as well as the final data on the country's GDP for the fourth quarter.

Daily

As expected yesterday, the main currency pair of the Forex market continued its downward trend and ended trading on Wednesday at 1.1811. Thus, the assumption that the support level of 1.1835 and the orange 200 exponential moving average will be passed was justified. However, to make unambiguous and categorical conclusions that both the level and the moving average are broken, in my opinion, it is still too early. So far, only one daily candle has closed under the 200 EMA and the mark of 1.1835. Plus, you should not discount the important technical and psychological level of 1.1800, near which the pair is currently trying to find support.

As you can see, today there was already a corrective pullback, which ended at 1.1827. The fact that the pair failed to pull back directly to the beaten support level of 1.1835 and 200 EMA only underscores the strength of the bearish sentiment on the euro/dollar. Given this factor and the overall technical picture, the main trading recommendation for EUR/USD continues to be sales, which are better to open after short-term rises in the price zone of 1.1820-1.1830. I consider selling at the breakdown of the mark of 1.1800 to be risky positioning. This level is very difficult, and it can not be excluded that it will be followed by attempts to return the quote higher, which we will use to sell the EUR/USD pair at more favorable and safe prices.