26.03.202118:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis of GBP/USD on March 26, 2021. Sterling regains strength but may resume decline next week

The wave pattern for the Pound/Dollar instrument looks more convincing after making adjustments. At this time, waves 1 and 2 of the new downward trend are clearly visible. They can also be waves a and b of the corrective part of the trend, but for now, I consider them still as part of the new impulse section of the trend. There are no internal waves inside the supposed wave 3, so it is difficult to imagine how long this wave will be. Although the retreat of quotes from the lows reached and an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 127.2% Fibonacci level just speaks in favor of the fact that the construction of the internal wave in 3 has begun. If this is really the case, then after a small move of quotes upward, the instrument will resume decreasing. The whole wave 3 can turn out to be quite extended, and its targets can be located around the 34th figure or even lower.

The news background for the Pound/Dollar instrument was rather weak on Friday. And it certainly did not increase the demand for the sterling. The UK retail report this morning came out slightly below market expectations when it comes to fuel sales and slightly better than expectations when it comes to excluding fuel sales. Overall, the report is fairly neutral. In America today, far from the most important reports came out. The personal consumption expenditure index turned out to be slightly below market expectations, as well as the levels of expenditures and incomes of the country's population. However, the deviations from the forecasts are so minimal that it is hardly possible to conclude that all the participants are in shock. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index exceeded expectations at 84.9, however, this report was even less important than the others. Thus, I believe that today the increase in the quotes of the instrument had absolutely nothing to do with the news background. British Finance Minister Rishi Sunak also spoke today, saying that the volume of assistance to business and the population will decrease, as the country comes out of the third lockdown, and the rate of vaccination allows us to count on accelerating recovery soon. However, let me remind you that following the results of the very third lockdown, the British economy contracted again, and the pound sterling began to rise yesterday morning and has not stopped doing so since then. Thus, I do not associate Rishi Sunak's speech with the strengthening of the sterling yesterday and today.

At this time, I still expect the formation of a downward wave 3. Thus, I recommend continuing to sell the instrument for each new MACD signal "down" with targets located around the 35th figure. So far, there are no grounds for making changes to the current wave counting.

The part of the trend, originating on September 23, took a five-wave, fully completed form. Thus, this section of the trend is presumably completed, and the decline in quotes may resume as part of the construction of a new downward trend section, the first two waves of which have already completed their construction.