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Analysis of Friday-Monday deals:
30M chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair was traded in the absolute flat mode on Friday and Monday. If what was happening was not clear on Friday, then on Monday, especially after overnight trading, it became absolutely apparent that the pair had entered a horizontal channel. Moreover, a rather narrow horizontal channel. The distance between its upper and lower borders is only 40 points. It is clear that it is very difficult to search and find strong signals in such a narrow range. Nevertheless, in general, traders still have a downtrend at their disposal, which is signaled by the downward trend line itself. Thus, theoretically, for the last two trading days, novice traders had every right to consider a sell signal that was formed by the MACD indicator. One such signal was generated last Friday (number "1" in the chart) and it turned out to be false. But then it was not yet clear that a flat had formed. Therefore, beginners could open short positions and take a loss of 10 points or so. The sell signal under the number "2" should not have been worked out, since the time was approaching nightfall and the end of trading on the foreign exchange market. The MACD turned down two more times and thus formed two more sell signals on Monday. The signal under the number "3" was again false, however, due to the low volatility, the loss on this deal was no more than 5-6 points. By the time the signal number "4" was formed, a clear horizontal channel had already been formed, so it was not worth working out this signal.
5M chart of the EUR/USD pair
Now let's take a look at the 5 minute timeframe. The first thing to note right away is the low volatility. That is, on this day, in principle, the price did not pass more than 20 points in one turn in one direction. There are often similar movements on Mondays. The dotted line marks the support level that was formed on Friday, (1.1773). The price bounced from it on Monday morning, having formed a buy signal, went up 20 points and the movement ended there. Traders could get a minimum profit on this deal or close it at 0. The quotes reached the 1.1763 level for the second time, from which the price rebounded back last Thursday, so it was also possible to open long positions. True, the price slightly went up again, but even then it was theoretically possible to earn 10-15 points. The last rebound from the 1.1763 level happened just a couple of hours ago, and by that time the 1.1773 level was no longer relevant, since the price crossed it five times during the day. Thus, beginners could reopen long positions, trying to earn 10 more points. In general, trading for today was difficult due to low volatility and the flat. Neither the European Union nor the United States released an important macroeconomic report during the day, not a single fundamental news.
How to trade on Tuesday:
We recommend trading on the 30-minute sell timeframe on Tuesday, as the downward trend continues. But first we recommend waiting for the pair to leave the horizontal channel and only after that should you consider new short positions. The 1.1746 level will also be important, from which a rebound can occur and in this case you can open long positions. Take Profit, as before, at a distance of 30-40 points. Stop Loss - to breakeven when the price passes in the right direction by 15-20 points. The 1.1763 level can be distinguished on the 5-minute timeframe. When rebounding from it, you can open long positions, when overcoming - short ones.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.
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