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French President Emmanuel Macron announced a nationwide four-week lockdown, sending all working citizens to telecommuting, as well as closing kindergartens, schools and colleges for three weeks.
The new measures will take effect starting Saturday, April 3.
The situation in France has worsened since December, when the number of new Covid cases rose to 69,590 per million, nearly double the number in Germany.
According to the French Ministry of Finance, the lockdown will be very costly economically: 150,000 stores are closed. According to the agency, the cost of restrictive measures, including vacation and tax benefits, will rise to €11 billion per month from €7.2 billion.
Do you still hope for a speedy recovery of the European economy?
Let me remind you that on Wednesday night, Italy also extended its partial lockdown until April, and Prime Minister Mario Draghi even stated that the current restrictions on movement and business opening in high-risk areas will remain in force until the end of April 30.
Additional measures include mandatory vaccination of medical personnel.
More regional outbreaks are the rule for governments whose plans to get life back on track and revitalize their economies have already been stumped by the slow roll-out of the vaccine across the EU.
Germany is also grappling with a third wave of coronavirus, where the incidence rate per 100,000 rose again on Thursday after more than doubling in the past month.
Germany, which cannot get out of the lockdown, constantly prolonging it for a new term, and Chancellor Angela Merkel, seeing the whole depressing situation, threatened to seize control of the strategy to combat the pandemic after accusing regional leaders of not strictly following the measures agreed with her government.
The current restrictions on the spread of the virus in Germany, including the closure of nonessential shops, gyms, and cultural facilities, should remain in effect until at least April 18.
Meanwhile, the Office of National Statistics (ONS) released a report that said long-term Covid symptoms affect about 1.1 million people in the UK, and about half of them say the disease is harming their daily lives. Note that the UK launched the mitigation phase of the restrictive measures earlier this week.
About 196,000 of these people said their ability to engage in regular activities was significantly impaired. These numbers detail those who are still battling the coronavirus.
For the first time, the UK Office for National Statistics analyzed how the pandemic will affect the population over time. Young people have been affected more by the pandemic than older people.
Extract of the report:
- The largest proportion of victims was between the ages of 25 and 34.
- About 6% of the population hesitated to take vaccines against the virus, up from 9% earlier in early December.
- About 1 in 5 black people were reluctant to take the vaccine, up from 44% previously.
- At least 1 in 8 people aged 16 to 29 were reluctant to take the vaccine. The same share was recorded in the most disadvantaged areas.
With such a strong array of information background among traders, there is a growing opinion that the medium-term upward trend in the euro and pound sterling will soon change direction.
What is happening in the market in terms of technical analysis?
The pound sterling (GBP/USD) has not renewed the local minimum of the corrective course from the peak of the medium-term trend 1.4224 ---> 1.3669 for a week. The pullback followed by a slowdown led market participants to a variable amplitude within the fluctuations of 1.3705/1.3845, where the well-known coordinates 1.3750 serve as a mirror level.
This stop is very reminiscent of a kind of cumulative process, where even the fluctuation structure within the boundaries of 1.3705/1.3845 reflects a gradual contraction.
In simple words, market participants are preparing for a new burst of activity, and if we take into account the fact that the current movement is still in the aisles of the base of the corrective move, then sellers have a chance to resume the downward mood.
As for the euro (EUR/USD), the picture is very similar to its English counterpart, with only one difference - the euro is more loyal to the decline, if you look at the frequency of updating the local minimum.
The pivot point from which the current pullback has occurred is the important area of interaction of trade forces at 1.1600/1.1650/1.1700, where the upper value has already put pressure on short positions.
Analyzing in detail the structure of the price rebound from the 1.1600/1.1650/1.1700 area, you can see that traders are in no hurry to build up long positions, this is indicated by the magnitude of the rollback and the subsequent slowdown in the form of a sideways range of 1.1713/1.1759.
All this also resembles the process of accumulation on the threshold of a great acceleration.
Expectations and prospects
It can be concluded that the economies of the European Union and Great Britain will not recover soon after the coronavirus crisis, and given the new restrictions in Europe and fears, another business cut should not be ruled out.
When analyzing the current EUR/USD trading chart, it is worth paying special attention to the 1.1713/1.1759 amplitude if you are focused on short-term trading, since there is an assumption that an outgoing impulse will soon await us.
The tactics of work will be carried out by the method of breakdown of one or another border of the range.
Signals for short-term trading:
We consider a buy position higher than 1.1760, in the direction of 1.1805.
We consider a sell position lower than 1.170, in the direction of 1.1650.
If you are focusing on medium-term trading, then, given the negative information flow, it is quite possible to expect an early change in the trend from an upward to a downward one. In this case, the quotes must stay below the area of interaction of trading forces 1.1600/1.1650/1.1700 on the day.
What happens on the EUR/USD chart in terms of indicator analysis and market dynamics?
Analyzing different sectors of time frames, we see that technical instruments on the minute and hourly charts have a variable signal* (buy/sell*) due to price movement within the range of 1.1713/1.1759 amplitude. The daily period, as before, is focused on a downward movement, signaling a sell.
In terms of market dynamics, a decrease in small volatility is recorded by about 23% relative to the previous day. The deceleration factor is movement in a closed amplitude, which we wrote about above, as soon as the range is broken through, an outgoing impulse and acceleration will occur.
Analyzing the GBP/USD chart, you can see that the cycle of fluctuations in the boundaries of 1.3705 and 1.3845, as before, remains in the market, and taking into account the stage of compression of the 1.3705/1.3810 amplitude, we may be on the threshold of acceleration.
The mirror level of 1.3750 currently serves as a support, which sellers are guided by, so if you are considering an increase in the volume of short positions and, as a result, the prolongation of the corrective move from the peak of the medium-term trend, then I would advise you to pay special attention to keeping the quotes below 1.3750 by four hour period.
The increase in the volume of short positions should be carried out gradually, the first (test step) is considered below 1.3750, after which the volume increases below the minimum of March 30. The main signal is a breakdown of the local minimum of 1.3669 correction.
An alternative scenario of the market development will be considered if the price is kept higher than 1.3845, but even in this case, the prospect of an upward move may be local.
What is happening on the GBP/USD chart in terms of indicator analysis and market dynamics?
Analyzing different sectors of time frames, we see that technical instruments repeat the signals of their European counterpart. So, minute and hour periods have a variable signal due to the amplitude, while the daily period follows a downward trajectory, signaling a sell.
In terms of market dynamics, it can be seen that the daily volatility tends to the average level, and this is taking into account the fact that the quotes are in a conditional stagnation. The speculative operations ratio is showing growth.
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