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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair consolidated under the upward trend corridor and fell to the corrective level of 76.4% (1.3721). Thus, if the pair's quotes close below this level, the price drop will continue in the direction of the next level of 1.3625. There was no exact rebound from the 76.4% level. In the UK and the US, vaccination of the population continues at a high rate. In 2 months, the entire adult population can be vaccinated. Once this happens, Britain and the US will be on the road to full recovery. Now, governments have to constantly stimulate economic growth through low rates, negative deposit rates, and monetary investment in the economy. If the epidemic ends, the population itself will come out of quarantine and return to normal life. That will spur retail spending and inflation. The International Monetary Fund believes that almost all developed countries will emerge from the crisis with minimal losses. This effect is provided by the high rate of vaccination of the population and the ability of governments to increase the public debt and public spending at a time of crisis. America will recover to the pre-crisis path for another year, and other countries, like the UK, for two or three years. The consequences will remain only in the form of increased public debts. As for the information background on duty, it is now extremely weak. Today, only Jerome Powell's speech will be worth paying attention to, although it is unlikely that the Fed chairman will surprise traders with anything.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair reversed in favor of the US currency and anchored under the upward trend line. Thus, the mood of traders has changed to "bearish", and the fall of quotes can be continued in the direction of the next corrective level of 38.2% (1.3643). There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes made another attempt to close under the upward trend line. It is difficult to say whether it is successful this time. The previous two were simply incomprehensible. Thus, the situation on the daily chart is confusing.
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound remain.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Wednesday, the UK business activity index for the services sector was released, which was slightly lower than traders expected. However, this report did not affect their mood.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
UK - PMI index for the construction sector (08:30 UTC).
US - number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits (12:30 UTC).
US - Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech (16:00 GMT).
On Thursday, the calendars of economic events in the UK and the US contain several entries, however, the most important event of the day is the speech of Jerome Powell.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from March 30 on the British pound showed a newly discovered reluctance of major players to deal with the pound. The "Non-commercial" category of traders closed 4,719 long contracts and 6,829 short contracts during the reporting week. If you look closely at the data from the table, it becomes clear that throughout March, speculators actively closed long contracts. Thus, if the report for February 23 showed a two-fold difference between the total number of long and short contracts for speculators, now the numbers have decreased, and the two-fold difference remains. Thus, the "bullish" mood remains, and the pound actively shows a desire to start new growth.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
It is not recommended to buy the British dollar now, as the quotes have closed under the ascending corridor on the hourly chart. It was recommended to sell the pound sterling when closing quotes under the ascending corridor on the hourly chart or under the trend line on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.3721 and 1.3634. The first of these was almost achieved. New sales – after overcoming it.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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