14.04.202109:31 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on April 14, 2021

I consider it necessary to start today's review of the main currency pair with the macroeconomic statistics released the day before from the Eurozone and the United States of America. If you look at yesterday's macroeconomic indicators in the economic calendar, it is clear that the index of business sentiment from the ZEW institute for the eurozone and Germany came out in the red zone, that is, worse than expected, and consumer prices in the United States rose more than experts predicted. In this regard, a quite natural question arises. In whose favor were yesterday's statistics? The answer is obvious. Of course, in favor of the US dollar. However, this factor was not reflected in the price dynamics of EUR/USD. I would like to emphasize that this case is far from an isolated one, which is why the author prefers to determine the price direction of a particular currency pair based on the technical picture on the charts.

Also, based on fundamental analysis, it is impossible to find a reasonable point for opening positions. I think this is understandable, and there is no arguing. On the other hand, the fundamental analysis has not been canceled, and it continues to be one of the components of the overall price direction. Today is also full of bright and important events. Regarding the euro area, these are data on industrial production, which will be published at 10:00 London time. And the main event for the single European currency today - the speech of the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde, which is scheduled for 15:00 (London time). As for the United States, there will also be numerous speeches by members of the Open Market Committee, however, the main one will be the speech of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) of the United States, Jerome Powell, which he will deliver at 17:00 (London time). I also recommend paying attention to the publication of the Fed's Beige Book at 19:00 (London time). That's probably all about the fundamental component. And now it's time to move on to the consideration of price charts.

Daily

And again, I will start with the daily timeframe, where as a result of yesterday's growth, the upper limit of the range indicated the day before was broken, namely, the resistance level of 1.1927, where the maximum trading values were shown on April 8. As expected, in the event of a breakdown of this level, the pair will continue to show an upward movement, which we observe at the end of this article. At the moment, the blue 50 simple moving average and the black 89 exponentials are tested for a breakdown. If the euro bulls do not retreat and do not give up their positions, and today's trading ends above these moves, the focus of the players on the appreciation will be another very difficult resistance level at 1.1988. Also, it is worth paying attention to the closing price of today's trading relative to the 50th level of the fibo from the decline of 1.2242-1.1703. If the pair can gain a foothold above this level, with a high degree of probability, it will be possible to assume not a correction, but a change in the trend for the euro/dollar.

Based on the technical picture and market sentiment, which is not in favor of the US currency, and even with favorable macroeconomic indicators, the main trading recommendation for EUR/USD is to buy after short-term declines in the price zone of 1.1950-1.1930. Sales will become relevant if bearish candlestick signals appear on the daily four-hour or hourly charts in the price area of 1.1970-1.1990.