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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair reversed in favor of the US dollar and fell to the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3919). The rebound of the pair's rate from this Fibo level will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the British dollar and the resumption of growth in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.3986). Fixing the quotes below the level of 100.0% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the level of 1.3860. If there is no news at all for the euro/dollar pair, then there were several reports for the British dollar yesterday that could help traders in trading. The reports were released at 06:00 UTC, and immediately after their release, the pair's quotes turned down and began to fall. Were the reports from the UK bad enough to reverse a fairly strong rise?
Let's take a look. The unemployment rate fell in February from 5.0% to 4.9%. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in March decreased from 67.3 thousand to 10.1 thousand. The level of average earnings rose in March by 4.5% and 4.4%, with approximately the same expectations. Thus, it turns out that the British dollar, on the contrary, should have continued to grow after the release of these reports. However, it crashed down, from which I conclude that the information background is now absolutely uninteresting to traders. It seems that the same global structural changes are taking place for the British as for the Europeans. The weekly chart shows that the downward trend for the British dollar has been maintained for 13 years, starting in 2007. Thus, both the euro and the pound have been falling against the dollar for 12-13 years. Perhaps now is just the time to change the global trend?
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair increased to the level of 1.4003 and a rebound from it. Thus, a reversal was made in favor of the US currency and a fall in the direction of the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3870) began. There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes resumed the increase in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.4084), and the ascending trend line received a new point, through which it now passes. The new closing of the quotes under the trend line will again allow us to count on a strong drop in the British quotes.
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound remain.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Tuesday, the US economic news calendar was again empty. And in the UK, several important reports were released, however, they were completely ignored by traders.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
UK - consumer price index (06:00 UTC).
UK - main consumer price index (06:00 UTC).
UK - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech (10:30 UTC).
On Wednesday, the UK will release a report on inflation, which is impossible to miss, and a little later there will be a speech by Andrew Bailey. In America - again without important news and reports.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report of April 13 on the Briton was very eloquent. The "Non-commercial" category of traders opened as many as 7,227 new long contracts, which is a lot for the pound. Speculators also opened 930 short contracts. Thus, the mood of the most important category of traders has sharply become more bullish. Now the number of long contracts in the "Non-commercial" category again exceeds twice the number of short contracts. This means that in general, the bullish mood among speculators remains, and the pound may continue to grow. That's exactly what it has been doing in the last few days.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I recommend buying the British dollar with a target of 1.3986 if there is a rebound from the level of 1.3919 on the hourly chart. I recommend selling the pound sterling if a close is made under the level of 1.3919 with a target of 1.3860 on the hourly chart.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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