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Yesterday's economic calendar was focused only on the UK statistics, which the market did not believe.
Here's the details of the economic calendar for April 20:
The United Kingdom released its labor market data, where everything is just fine at first glance. The unemployment rate in the country is decreasing from 5.0% to 4.9%, against the expected growth of 5.1%. With all this positive background, UK employment is declining by 73,000, which has been going on for 11 months. Now, the question is are the indicators for the unemployment rate reliable?
The pound had already stopped rising by the time the statistical data was published, and after a while, it declined.
In Europe and the United States, there were no noteworthy statistics that was published.
Analysis of trading charts from April 20:
With all the desire to change the structure of the oblong correction 1.2349 ---> 1.1703, the EUR/USD pair still slowed down the growth, pulling the quote back to the borders of the psychological level 1.1950/1.2000/1.2050.
The upward movement is expected to continue if the price were kept above the level of 1.2050. However, this did not happen possibly due to the euro's high overbought level.
Meanwhile, the British currency approached the psychological level of 1.4000 yesterday, where there was a slowdown in the upward movement and a price pullback on a natural basis.
It should be noted that the area of 1.4000 has repeatedly served as a level of interaction of trade forces in history, which led to a change in trade interests in the market.
A good example is the dates of March 4, 12 and 18.
The trading recommendation on April 20 about the volume of long positions will be reduced by the time that the 1.4000 mark is reached coincided, which was likely to bring us profit in the market.
Trading recommendations of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on April 21, 2021
Today, Britain has already published its inflation data, where it rose from 0.4% to 0.7% against the forecasted 0.8%.
What is the consumer price index?
The consumer price index is the inflation indicator, prepared by its office for national statistics of Britain, and reflects the report on the dynamics of retail prices for a group of goods and services that make up the consumer basket.
From the point of view of fundamental analysis, an increase in inflation leads to the growth of the national currency – GBP.
In our case, investors are worried that inflation is growing rapidly, and following the example of Europe and the West, this may lead to the opposite effect, that is, to the pound's sale.
There is nothing interesting to be released in Europe and the US again.
Looking at the trading chart of EUR/USD, it can be seen that the pullback from the local high of 1.2071 is only at the very beginning. If the volume of a short position increases and the price is held below the level of 1.2000, a movement towards 1.1950 is not excluded.
As for the trading chart of GBP/USD, it shows that the existing pivot point coincides with the recently broken through high of 1.3917 from April 6. The breakdown of this coordinate along a downward course will lead to an increase in the volume of short positions and a weakening of the pound to the range of 1.3850-1.3800.
An alternative scenario considers the price rebound from the 1.3917 level, where buy positions higher than 1.3950 will become relevant again.
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