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GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair quotes have spent the last two trading days mainly between 38.2% and 23.6%. The last one was a fall to the Fibo level of 38.2% (1.3879), which is likely to be followed by a rebound with a reversal in favor of the British dollar and the resumption of the growth process. There has been no economic information in recent days in the UK, and in general, the beginning of this week turned out to be extremely boring in terms of information. Just one report on orders for long-term goods in the United States, which traders ignored. The Fed's two-day meeting results will be summed up this evening, and Jerome Powell will hold a press conference by video link afterward. There can be quite a large amount of information in the evening.
The Fed will give adjusted forecasts for the coming years on developing the economy and unemployment with inflation. Jerome Powell himself can hint at when traders can expect a curtailment of the QE program, which currently amounts to 120 billion a month. However, on the other hand, Powell may not give any hints on the timing of the completion of this program, but remain true to his previous rhetoric, saying that until the US economy has fully recovered, all stimulus programs and low rates will remain in force. So tonight, it will all depend on Jerome Powell and what exactly he says during the video conference. No one can predict what Powell will be talking about tonight. And it doesn't make any sense to guess. It is better to work with this event after the fact. When it becomes known what Powell will say, it will be possible to conclude, and not vice versa.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a drop just below the corrective level of 23.6% (1.3870). However, the bullish divergence of the CCI indicator made it possible to perform a reversal in favor of the British dollar and resume the growth process in the direction of the level of 1.4003. A rebound from this correction level will allow us to expect a reversal in favor of the US currency and a resumption of the fall in quotes.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes resumed the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.4084), and the ascending trend line received new points, through which it now passes. The new closing of the quotes under the trend line will again allow us to count on a strong drop in the British quotes.
GBP/USD – Weekly.
The pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line on the weekly chart. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound remain.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Tuesday, in the UK and the US, the news calendars did not contain any important and interesting information. There was no information background.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
US - FOMC decision on the main interest rate (18:00 UTC).
US - FOMC accompanying statement (18:00 UTC).
US - FOMC press conference (18:00 UTC).
On Wednesday, there will still be no information background in the UK, and in the US – the results of the FOMC meeting and a press conference with Jerome Powell.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from April 20 on the British was again very eloquent. The "Non-commercial" category of traders opened 10,523 long contracts and 8,205 short contracts during the reporting week. Thus, the first thing to note is the growth of the activity of major players. In total, 15,171 long contracts and 20,600 short contracts were opened during the reporting week. The activity grew in all categories of traders. The mood of speculators has become more "bullish," and the ratio of the number of long and short contracts focused on their hands remains approximately 2:1. That is, the British can continue the growth process.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I recommend buying the British dollar with a target of 1.4084 if there is a rebound from the trend line on the daily chart. I recommend selling the pound if it is closed under the trend line on the daily chart with a target of 1.3513.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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