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EUR/USD – 1H.
During the last day, the EUR/USD pair fell to the corrective level of 127.2% (1.2067), rebound from it, a small increase, and at this time, it is again approaching this level. Thus, we can say that the activity of traders yesterday was very low. There were no interesting events during the day. Fixing the pair's rate under the level of 127.2% will favor the US currency and the continuation of the fall in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.1989). Perhaps the most interesting news of recent days was the legal battle between the European Union and AstraZeneca, which produces vaccines against coronavirus. According to the contract with the company, the European Commission did not wait for the delivery of the vaccine on time and in full, so it decided to appeal to the Belgian court with a lawsuit.
According to various sources, in the first quarter, the British-Swedish company AstraZeneca did not deliver up to 90 million doses of the vaccine to the European Union. The European Commission expected the situation to improve in the second quarter. However, the first month of this quarter showed that this is unlikely to happen. Thus, AstraZeneca and the AstraZeneca vaccine remain the most problematic among all other vaccines recognized by the world. Let me remind you that the best reviews are from Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. The European Union has switched to these vaccines. However, of course, this news did not have any impact on the euro/dollar pair.
Moreover, they are not even economical. And there has been no economic news at all in recent days. Today, the Fed meeting ends, and traders can finally get some important information. But this event is scheduled for late evening, and during the day, there may be the same "news calm."
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes resumed the growth process after several days of ordeal around the level of 161.8% (1.2027). However, almost immediately, the bearish divergence worked in favor of the US currency, and a new process of falling in the direction of the ascending trend line began. It was not possible to close below the trend line, so the rebound may favor resuming growth in the direction of the level of 1.2223. The consolidation of quotes under the trend line will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of 1.1836.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair quotes increased to the descending trend line and the level of 323.6% (1.2080). Closing above will allow us to count on continued growth in the direction of the corrective level of 423.6% (1.2496). Rebound – will allow you to depend on the resumption of the fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 261.8% (1.1822).
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle," which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On April 27, the European Union and the United States did not have a single important economic event or report. The information background was simply absent on this day.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech (14:00 UTC).
US - FOMC decision on the main interest rate (18:00 UTC).
US - FOMC accompanying statement (18:00 UTC).
US - FOMC press conference (18:00 UTC).
On April 28, the calendars of economic events in the United States and the European Union contain a speech by Christine Lagarde and the results of the Fed meeting with a press conference by Jerome Powell.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released, which turned out to be very eloquent. At the moment, a bullish trend has formed on many charts, or it is about to form. As it turned out, the "Non-commercial" category of traders was also engaged in building up long contracts and closing short contracts during the reporting week. The first opened 6283, and the second closed 8,534. Thus, the "bullish" mood of speculators increases again, which gives reason to expect the continuation of the growth of the euro currency. The gap between the total number of long and short contracts in the hands of major players is growing again.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I recommend selling the pair if it closes below the trend line on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.1989 and 1.1922. I recommend buying the pair today when you break away from the trend line on the 4-hour chart with goals of 1.2117 and 1.2166.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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