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EUR/USD – 1H.
During the last day, the EUR/USD pair reversed in favor of the US currency and a slight drop in the area of the level of 1.2117. In general, the US dollar showed growth last day. However, it was minimal. There are few benchmarks on the hourly chart right now, so I recommend making trading decisions on older charts. Yesterday, the information background for the euro/dollar pair was quite interesting. Traders could continue to work out the information received from the Fed days earlier (this applies to European traders), but, as we can see, nothing like this happened, and the correction began on the morning of the last day. During the day, America released more than just an important report on GDP for the first quarter of 2021. According to various estimates, traders expected growth of at least 6.1%, and at the maximum – by 6.8%. The actual value of GDP was 6.4%, which, in my opinion, is an excellent result for the American economy and fully confirms the words of Jerome Powell about the high rate of economic recovery. Thus, traders had reason to buy the dollar. But for some reason, they didn't. Therefore, I conclude that the "bullish" mood is now too strong, and even the GDP report can not cover it. Traders were disappointed that the Fed will continue its policy of total economic stimulus in the near future, instead of starting to hint at a possible tightening. So economic reports don't seem to play much of a role right now. The report on applications for unemployment benefits in the US was also quite strong but also did not help the US currency.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes resumed the growth process after a new rebound from the trend line in the direction of the level of 1.2223. However, the new bearish divergence of the CCI indicator allows us to count on a new round of falling quotes. The rebound from the trend line will again work in favor of the European currency and the resumption of growth. This trend line now plays the most important role in predicting the movement of the pair.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair quotes closed above the descending trend line. Thus, the growth process on this chart can be continued in the direction of the corrective level of 423.6% (1.2496). Perhaps after a correction, which can be determined by closing quotes below the trend line on the 4-hour chart.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle," which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On April 29, the calendar of economic events in the European Union was empty, and quite important reports from America did not affect the mood of traders too much.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - consumer price index (09:00 UTC).
EU - change in GDP (09:00 UTC).
US - main index of personal consumption expenditures (12:30 UTC).
US - changes in the level of spending and income of the population (12:30 UTC).
On April 30, important economic data will arrive from Europe. Reports on GDP and inflation are hardly unimportant. Thus, traders will focus their attention on them today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released, which turned out to be very eloquent. At the moment, a bullish trend has formed on many charts, or it is about to form. As it turned out, the "Non-commercial" category of traders was also engaged in building up long contracts and closing short contracts during the reporting week. The first opened 6,283. The second closed 8,534. Thus, the "bullish" mood of speculators increases again, which gives reason to expect the continuation of the growth of the euro currency. The gap between the total number of long and short contracts in the hands of major players is growing again.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I recommend selling the pair if it closes below the trend line on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.1989 and 1.1922. Today, the pair's purchases were recommended when it broke away from the trend line on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.2117 and 1.2166. They should be kept open for now.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.
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