19.05.202111:18 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis and forecast for GBP/USD on May 19, 2021

In today's article on the pound/dollar pair, more attention will be paid to the technical picture at smaller time intervals. But first, let us briefly talk about the statistics that have already arrived from the UK and about the evening events related to the publication of the FOMC minutes. So, the main releases from the UK were data on retail and consumer prices. The retail price index and the consumer price index in annual terms were stronger than expected and amounted to 2.9% and 1.5%, respectively. However, the main event of the day and the entire trading week will take place in the evening, when the minutes of the last FOMC meeting will be published at 19:00 London time. It is reasonable to assume that the minutes will once again reflect the desire of the Fed's leaders not to rush to tighten monetary policy and continue to take a wait-and-see attitude, closely monitoring incoming macroeconomic reports. At the same time, sharp jumps in inflation are likely to be characterized as a temporary phenomenon again. If so, the US dollar is unlikely to have to rely on support after the publication of the Fed minutes. With a high degree of probability, we can assume that the pressure on the US currency will continue and possibly increase.

Daily

In yesterday's trading, the pair rose, but after showing the maximum values at 1.4218, it could not stay above the landmark level of 1.4200 and ended Tuesday's trading at 1.4186. At the same time, the upper shadow, which can not be called small, left an unpleasant residue for those who expect further growth of sterling, and so far, these fears are justified. At the time of writing, the pair is trading with a slight decline. However, given the importance of the evening event, namely the publication of the FOMC minutes, a lot can change.

H4

The four-hour chart clearly shows a pullback to the broken green resistance line of 1.4165, slightly below which is the middle (dotted) line of the ascending channel, built on the points 1.3800-1.3856 (support line) and 1.4153 (resistance line). If bullish patterns or the Japanese candlestick pattern appear in the price zone of 1.4170-1.4150, this will signal open purchases with the nearest targets in the area of 1.4200-1.4215. The consolidation of three consecutive candles along the dotted middle line and the subsequent pullback should be considered for opening sales with targets in the area of 1.4100-1.4050.

H1

The picture on the hourly chart, in principle, confirms the trading ideas put forward when describing the four-hour timeframe. However, earlier and riskier purchases can be tried from the current prices, as the pullback to the broken resistance of 1.4165 can already be considered valid. If we consider options with opening long positions at lower prices, I recommend looking at the price zone of 1.4165-1.4140. The reversal patterns of Japanese candlesticks in the resistance area of 1.4215-1.4230 on this or four-hour charts can signal sales. And yet, in my personal opinion, purchases are the main trading idea for GBP/USD at the moment.