04.05.201108:57 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels - May 4, 2011

Long-term review

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GBP/JPY is moving within wave C of medium term downtrend - colored royal blue in the chart. To confirm wave C break below 132.90 is needed, since this is the top of wave A. Now wave C has three subwaves in it - A-B and C developing, colored red in the chart. And the latter has A and corrective B - colored orange red in the chart. The targets of the upmove are Fibonacci retracements of 136.09-132.91, 137.03-132.91.

Resistances:

- 132.12 = .382 retracement
- 134.48-50 = confluence area of .382 and .50 retracements
- 138.88-97 = .618 and .50 retracements
- 135.46 = .618 ret

If the downtrend continues and the price breaks below 132.91 the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 122.49-139.93, and expansions off 139.93-132.90-137.03, 137.03-135.17-136.09, 136.09-132.91-134.02.

Supports:

- 132.69 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 132.05 = COP
- 131.22-21 = confluence area of super expanded objective point (SXOP) and .50 ret
- 130.84 = objective point (OP)
- 130.00 = OP

Overbought/Oversold

Assuming that the wave of a larger degree is moving down it's preferable to open short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (40-50 pips above the current prices).

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