20.05.202111:38 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on May 20, 2021

Yesterday's publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Open Market Committee (FOMC) was served as the main dish of this week's fundamental events. There were no drastic changes in the views of monetary officials, and the document published yesterday supported the US dollar. It stopped the fall of the US currency across a wide range of markets. Let's start with the inflationary component. As before, higher inflation was described by Fed officials as a temporary factor. I want to remind you that this has already been mentioned before. However, in general, the US Central Bank's forecast for inflation remains the same. As for the economy, despite the reasonably decent pace of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, it is still far from reaching pre-coronavirus values.

In particular, the FOMC noted the supply disruptions, which harm the economic recovery in the United States. Regarding employment, Fed officials indicated that it had slowed somewhat in the private sector, although in general, it leaves hope for a return to previous levels. It is the main signal that can be caught from the minutes of the April Fed meeting published yesterday. Some executives believe that, in the event of an economic recovery at the current or stronger pace, it will be possible to consider changing the volume of bond purchases in the direction of its reduction. Most likely, this was the main factor supporting the US dollar in yesterday's trading. As usual, we will not underestimate the importance of the technical component.

Daily

The daily chart of the main currency pair of the Forex market clearly shows that the euro bulls had a very difficult time with the passage of strong resistance from sellers in the significant technical zone of 1.2240-1.2250. At the same time, problems with the breakdown of the resistance at 1.2242 began in the first half of the day, that is, long before the publication of the FOMC protocols. In the case of a favorable recovery, the QE program may be reduced completely, burying yesterday's attempts to break through the indicated resistance. Moreover, from 1.2244, the EUR/USD pair turned down, ending trading on May 19 at 1.2174. It is characteristic that this is below the previous and already passed up the resistance level of 1.2181. However, once again, we see that one candle closed above 1.2181 was not enough to consider this level truly broken. At the time of writing, the pair is trading with a slight increase, near 1.2190. However, to again consider the market for the euro/dollar bullish, the players for the increase need to absorb the growth of yesterday's candle and close trading above the highs of May 19 (1.2244). And at this stage of time, yesterday's daily candle can be perceived as a reversal signal for a decline in the quote, at least until the growth absorbs it.

H1

After yesterday's fall on the FOMC protocols, the quote went into consolidation mode. Now, it shows the intention to resume the upward scenario. Taking into account yesterday's daily candle and the fact that it was formed after an unsuccessful attempt to break through the resistance of sellers at 1.2242, I suggest tracking the appearance of reversal patterns of candle analysis on this and (or) four-hour charts after rises in the price zone of 1.2200-1.2238. If such signals appear, it is worth trying to sell but with small targets in the area of 1.2205-1.2185. Purchases will become relevant again if the EUR/USD trades above 1.2244. To open long positions from the depth, I recommend looking at the level of 1.2150. At the same time, the typical bullish patterns of Japanese candlesticks will confirm the opening of purchases near this mark. It is not yet evident that yesterday's candle is a signal for an adjustment or reversal of the exchange rate. Thus, I recommend that more cautious traders stay out of the market until the situation clears up.