21.05.202102:00 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis of GBP/USD on May 20. Bank of England may reduce QE in the second quarter

The wave pattern of the GBP/USD pair becomes more or less clear. The latest increase in quotes resulted in an update of the high of the expected wave e, so now, this wave no longer looks like an e. Nevertheless, it can still be wave e, but then it should end soon. If the current wave pattern is correct, then the instrument will continue to decline from the current positions as part of building a new low of the three-wave downward trend section. If the markets make a successful attempt to break the high of wave 5 in 5, this will indicate the readiness to further buy the pound, and the entire wave pattern, which started either on March 25 or on April 9, may take on a more complex form. It can get complicated even without such assumptions. Since the upward part of the trend began on April 9, then it can also take a 5-wave form. In this case, more waves d and e can be formed.

The instrument reacted to the Fed's minutes published on Wednesday, responding with a decline of 50 basis points or so. Contrary to the euro, it is quite possible for the pound to complete the formation of the upward trend. But so far, this is uncertain. As of Thursday morning, there were no reports and important events from the UK. Nevertheless, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, spoke several times this week about inflation. Mr. Bailey noted that the inflation growth would last. He attributed last month's price increase to the rise in energy prices and believes that inflation will rise to 2.5% by the end of the year, but then return to the target of 2%. However, a further rise in prices may force the Bank of England to tighten monetary policy, which will initially consist in reducing the monthly repurchase of securities. But most economists agree that this is hardly worth talking about before the second half of the year, and even then, only if inflation really continues to rise. It can be recalled that the UK's inflation is 1.5%, and 4.2% in the US. So, markets received the first hints in America regarding a possible reduction in the quantitative easing program in the uncertain future. All this current news does not have a drastic impact on the wave pattern, which remains the main instrument. Unfortunately, it is still not very clear.

The wave pattern continues to be very confusing, so it is suggested to wait for it to clear up. There are at least several options for a wave pattern, each of which can be implemented in the coming weeks. At this time, the upward wave is supposed to be done with its formation. Its internal wave structure seems to have turned out to be five-wave, so the quotes, leaving the reached highs, should continue. However, it is still unclear within the framework of which more global wave.

The upward section of the trend, which started to form several months ago, is taking on a quite unclear form. It was mentioned above that several wave pattern options are possible at once. Unfortunately, different options offer different further developments. Therefore, it may be necessary to wait for some time for the current wave pattern to slightly clear up.