21.05.202110:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Positive production data will support demand for shares and put pressure on the US dollar

The American data on applications for benefits, presented on Thursday, slightly revived investors' activity in the currency markets, contributing to the growth of purchases of company shares.

Based on the presented data, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits during the past week declined to 444,000 against the forecast of 450,000 and their revised upward value to 478,000. Investors expected the numbers, inspired by the minutes of the Fed's latest monetary policy meeting released on Wednesday, which showed that the regulator is not yet thinking about changing anything relative to the monetary rate.

The optimistic mood of the market participants could not even care about the extremely weak values of the index of manufacturing activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. It is worth noting that the indicator plunged from 50.2 points in April to 31.5 points in May. Apparently, investors will not be intimidated by negative values of production indicators, but will perceive them as an important hindrance for the Fed, so that it does not take any action to change monetary policy.

Against this background, European and American stock indices have risen quite noticeably for the first time in recent days. In the United States, the reasons for this were described above, while in Europe, the ECB's statement voiced by its representatives was the incentive for this. Mr. Lane said that the regulator actually sees no reason to change its course of monetary policy, as it expects a temporary inflation growth.

According to the ICE index, the US dollar paired with major currencies continues to consolidate around the key level of 90 points in the currency market. In general, it remains in the red zone, since the presence of the repeatedly mentioned significant weakening factors do not allow it to receive support. In addition, the possible end of the correction in the stock markets may turn into a new local rally, which will negatively affect the demand for the US dollar.

Today, the market will focus on the publication of data on business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors in Germany, Euro zone and the United States. If a slight increase in the values of indicators is expected in Europe, then in the United States, a decrease is expected. The sales values for the US secondary housing market will also be announced, which is likely to increase.

We believe that if the business activity data in Europe and the US does not turn out to be worse than forecasts, and perhaps, even exceed them, then this will be a good impulse to continue yesterday's growth in stock indices with a simultaneous decline in the rate of the US dollar.

Forecast of the day:

The EUR/USD pair remains in a short-term upward trend. The rising positive market mood will support the pair, which will quickly move to the level of 1.2340 after breaking through the level of 1.2240.

The GBP/USD pair may also get support if it holds above the level of 1.4160. It may increase to the level of 1.4225 first and then to 1.4300 on the wave of the UK's positive economic data.