21.05.202110:59 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on May 21, 2021

In yesterday's trading, the main currency pair of the Forex market returned to the upward trend and ended Thursday's session at the level of 1.2226. It seems that the effect of the Fed minutes was short-lived and provided only local support for the US dollar. Let me remind you that the minutes of the US Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee contained hints of an earlier reduction in the volume of the quantitative easing program. The reasons for this assumption about the short-term effect of the protocols are best seen in the price charts, which we will consider a little later. For now, let us briefly talk about the positive news from Europe.

Despite the initial failure of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign, Brussels officials could radically change the situation. Currently, vaccination in the EU countries is taking place at an increasing and very effective pace. In particular, this trend can be noted in Italy and Spain - the countries most affected by the coronavirus epidemic. In addition, these countries are of crucial importance for the region in the field of tourism. Suppose the COVID-19 vaccination campaign no longer suffers unforeseen failures or misfires this summer. In that case, the traditionally popular EU tourist countries hope to receive many tourists, including from the United States, China, and the United Kingdom.

However, after the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the European Union, it is now much more challenging to regulate the policy in the tourism sector. Nevertheless, the main conditions for tourist trips to the EU countries will be the mandatory availability of vaccinations from COVID-19 and vaccinations only with those drugs that are certified by the European Union. On the return of tourists, in particular, from Spain, they will have to undergo a ten-day quarantine in their homeland. So far, this seems to be a big step forward. After all, until recently, the tourist season in Europe was generally on the verge of collapse.

If we briefly touch on the fundamental component, yesterday's good data on initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States and the index of leading indicators did not provide the US currency with the necessary support to continue strengthening after the publication of the Fed minutes. In all likelihood, the market quickly played down the comments of some Fed officials about a possible earlier reduction in the volume of the QE program, after which the US dollar again came under selling pressure, at least in pair with the single European currency.

Today, business activity indices in the manufacturing and services sectors will be published from Europe and the United States and a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde. All the details about the time and forecasts for these and other events can be seen in the economic calendar.

Daily

After yesterday's growth, the market again focused on the strong resistance of sellers in the area of 1.2242/44. Today, at the time of writing this article, the pair has already risen to 1.2239. However, it has not yet been able to go higher and is currently trading near 1.2224. I believe that a lot will depend on how the entire trading week will close relative to the level of 1.2244, where the maximum trading values were shown on May 19. Most likely, it is around this mark that the struggle of the opposing sides will unfold today.

A confident close above 1.2244 will signal that EUR/USD is ready for further growth, with targets of 1.2280, 1.2300, and 1.2345. If a candle with a long lower shadow or a bearish model with a black body appears on the daily chart, this will slightly blur the bullish picture and delay the breakdown of the resistance of 1.2244. For those who intend to open new positions on the last day of weekly trading, I recommend making purchases as a basis after short-term corrective pullbacks to the price zone of 1.2210-1.2195 or slightly lower after a decline in the area of 1.2200-1.2185. At the same time, it is better to set the profit near 1.2240. After all, the resistance in this area has not yet been broken, which means that another rebound downwards cannot be ruled out.