25.05.202111:02 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis and forecast for GBP/USD on May 25, 2021

According to the results of yesterday's trading of the GBP/USD currency pair, it can be noted that they were quite uneven. The opposing parties traded on this instrument with varying degrees of success. It is more detailed in the technical part of the review. However, for now, let us talk about a slightly different topic. You can describe this as a preface. As noted in today's euro/dollar article, a successful COVID-19 vaccination campaign in many countries around the world creates the prerequisites for a gradual economic recovery - both in these individual countries and in the global economy as a whole. Against this background, the US dollar is losing its relevance and attractiveness as a protective haven, and market participants are increasingly willing to give their preference to risky currencies.

However, the latest FOMC minutes, published last Wednesday, created the illusion for a certain part of investors that the US Federal Reserve is about to tighten its monetary policy and begin the process of raising interest rates. The main reason for such assumptions is the sharp upward jumps in inflation in the United States. However, as the Fed leaders and the chairman of the US Central Bank Jerome Powell have repeatedly noted, such a sharp surge in inflationary pressure seems to be a temporary phenomenon. In this regard, the next meeting of the Federal Reserve, which will be held on June 15-16, will be very interesting and significant. Also in the focus of attention of market participants is the reduction of the infrastructure bill to $ 1.7 trillion, which the Biden administration insists on, but Republican senators have not yet supported this bill.

Daily

In contrast to the euro/dollar, a Doji candle appeared on the daily chart of GBP/USD yesterday, which became a signal for today's strengthening of the pound/dollar currency pair. At least at the end of the review, the pair is actively growing and trying to overcome the important technical mark of 1.4200. However, even passing this significant level does not guarantee an easy life for the bulls on the pound. At 1.4232, there is strong resistance from sellers, where trading highs were shown on May 21. I believe that only a true breakdown of this level with a confident close above it will create the prerequisites for further strengthening of the course.

And now back to yesterday's trading and the Doji candle, which eventually appeared on the daily chart of GBP/USD. As you may recall, yesterday's trading recommendations for this instrument suggested purchases after a decline in the price zone of 1.4120-1.4100. As a result, having reached the minimum values at 1.4110 (exactly in the middle of the indicated range), the pair began to actively recover, leaving only a long shadow at the bottom. At the same time, the assumption that the Tenkan red line can provide strong support to the quote during yesterday's trading was also confirmed.

H4

But moving to a smaller period, we see that the bulls on the pound are not as rosy as they may seem. Yesterday, in the area of 1.4230, the pair again met strong resistance from sellers, as a result of which a reversal candle model "Long-legged Doji" appeared. After that, the decline began, which was stopped by the level of 1.4110. Today, the pair has already been at 1.4209. However, it has not yet been able to stay above the most important level of 1.4200 and rolled back, trading near 1.4185 at the end of the article. Once again, we have to admit that the price zone 1.4200-1.4230 represents a very strong resistance, and only a confident breakdown of 1.4232 will allow us to count on the pair's growth to higher prices. As you can see, at this stage, the blue 50 simple moving average provides good support for the quote. Thus, in the event of another decline in the pair to 50 MA, you can think about buying the British currency. I recommend looking for lower prices for purchases in the area of 1.4100-1.4088. If the current H4 candle retains its current shape and turns out to be a reversal, you can try to sell short, but so far only in the expectation of a corrective pullback. Still, at this stage of time, the main trading idea looks like purchases that are better opened from the depth.