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The wave counting on the 4-hour chart of bitcoin is absolutely clear on the higher scale. At this time, we see a classic three-wave correction structure a-b-c, which has already been completed at the moment. Thus, presumably, the construction of a new upward trend section has now begun within the three-wave structure. Since there are no wave structures less than 3 waves, then I expect a new upward wave, which should go beyond the peak of the supposed wave a. If this is true, then bitcoin in the coming days will rise to at least $42,500, which corresponds to 61.8% Fibonacci. At the same time, let me remind you that bitcoin is very dependent on the news background. Therefore, any new important message can both lead to a much stronger increase in the main cryptocurrency, and to a new decrease in it with the complication of the wave structure of the downward trend, which originates on April 14.
The mood of the cryptocurrency market remains depressing, but yesterday the markets still managed to find a little optimism, thanks to which the main cryptocurrency managed to grow by $5,000. However, this movement is not surprising for bitcoin. For example, yesterday's strong movement still applies, presumably, to wave c, which, according to estimates, can now turn out twice as long as yesterday's movement. That is, the usual corrective wave in the composition of the correction structure can turn out to be approximately $10,000-$12,000. Meanwhile, analysts around the world have analyzed the latest drop in bitcoin and made their own conclusions. Let me remind you that the news has been very negative lately. First, it became known that the Joe Biden administration is going to significantly tighten the tax code and oblige crypto exchanges to send data on each transaction over $10,000 to the Internal Revenue Service. And then information came from China that the authorities are going to completely ban mining in this country, and, according to the latest information, several mining pools have already ceased their activities and are preparing to transport equipment to other locations, particularly to North America.
Many analysts agree that the mining ban in China will not negatively impact bitcoin in the long term. It is unlikely that because of this ban, the whole world will change its attitude towards bitcoin, and there are a huge number of countries where mining is not prohibited. Also, many experts agree that the last drop in bitcoin is just a coincidence when several different factors were superimposed on one another at once. The market was very overheated, as bitcoin has risen in price more than ten times over the past year and a half, and at some point, the nerves broke down and the market collapsed. Thus, I believe that bitcoin has now entered a protracted phase of decline. In 2014 and 2018, such phases also began after the main cryptocurrency showed record growth. In this way, dreams of $100,000 per coin can be postponed for several years.
Based on the analysis, I believe that the three downward wave structure is complete. The current wave counting indicates a possible rise within wave c, so I recommend small purchases of bitcoin for each MACD upward signal with targets located around $42,500. An unsuccessful attempt to break through the 61.8% Fibonacci level may lead to a new strong decline in bitcoin, but I more hope that in the coming year, the cryptocurrency will build complex corrective structures and will not resume the upward trend.
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