25.05.202119:06 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Analysis of GBP/USD. May 25. UK retail sales deteriorate

For the pound/dollar instrument, the wave counting has cleared up a bit, but still raises certain questions. The biggest questions are raised by wave e, the internal wave structure of which raises really serious questions. In addition, its length suggests that it has already completed its construction. But the high demand for the British pound does not make it possible for the instrument to start building a new downward set of waves. Thus, wave e cannot be considered complete yet, and the fact that the last wave is exactly e cannot be considered 100% either. I have already said that the entire current wave counting since February 2021 raises too many questions. In particular, it is absolutely unclear where the construction of the last upward trend section began: the lows of waves c and b practically coincide. Thus, the current upward part of the trend may take on a more extended form if its construction began not on March 25, but on April 9. A successful attempt to break through the 0.0% Fibonacci level, which corresponds to 1.4243, can indirectly indicate the readiness to continue the growth.

The pound/dollar instrument did not react to the most important reports on Tuesday. Nevertheless, it became known that net borrowing of the UK public sector in April reached 31 billion pounds. A month earlier, the value of the indicator was equal to 25.5 billion pounds. In addition, the indicator of activity in retail sales, according to the Confederation of British Industry, showed a decline from 20 points to 18, although the markets were expecting, on the contrary, an increase to 24 points. The value of this indicator is formed through opinion polls of various retail and wholesale companies, which must answer the question, did they notice an increase in sales in the reporting period or, conversely, a decline? The main indicator of retail trade increased by 9.2% in April. It looks like it could possibly decline after strong growth. One way or another, but the demand for the British pound has decreased during the day, and the currency has lost about 60 basis points from the highs of the day. However, in general, such a decline in the instrument does not affect the current wave counting in any way. To recognize wave e as completed, a more significant decline is necessary. In order to recognize the complication of the upward trend, a successful attempt to break the 0.0% Fibonacci level is required. There is neither one nor the other at this time. The instrument has been moving along the level of 1.4240 for several days.

At this time, the wave pattern continues to be twofold, so I recommend waiting for its clarification. There are at least several variants of wave counting, each of which may be implemented in the near future. Now the upward wave e is supposedly completing its construction. However, its internal wave structure looks ambiguous. You can try to sell the instrument with an order above 1.4240, which corresponds to 0.0% Fibonacci. And if the level of 1.4240 is surpassed, buy.

The upward part of the trend, which began to be built a couple of months ago, is taking on a rather ambiguous form. As I mentioned above, several wave counting options are possible at once. Unfortunately, different options offer different succeeding developments. Therefore, it may be necessary to wait for some time for the current wave counting to clear up a bit.